🍁Happy Wednesday morning, dear readers,

Is there a tentative deal to avoid further U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods? More details should be known later today, but a timely Léger poll released this morning suggests that a majority of Canadians no longer want government negotiators to bend to U.S. demands.

Additionally, according to Léger, few Canadians believe the Carney government has been aggressive in its negotiations and has stood up to the United States.

Let’s dive into the data.

Léger asked respondents:

Based on what you have read, heard or seen, which of the following descriptions best describes how you feel Prime Minister Carney and the Government of Canada has approached the negotiations for a new trade deal with the United States?

A plurality of respondents nationally (38%) believe the Canadian government has been passive and has made concessions to U.S. negotiators. Another 30% believe the government has taken a balanced approach.

Only 15% believe the government has been aggressive in the current trade negotiations and has stood up to the United States.

After measuring Canadians' impressions of the government's approach so far, Léger followed up by asking what approach they would prefer going forward:

In your opinion, how would you like the Government of Canada to approach the negotiations with the United States?

There is no unanimity on this question, but there is a clear preference: 56% believe the Canadian government should take a hard line and make no more concessions, compared with 31% who favour greater flexibility and additional concessions.

Regionally, taking a hard line is the preferred approach in every region measured. It receives majority support everywhere except Alberta, where it nevertheless leads the more flexible approach by 46% to 38%.

Léger finds majorities among supporters of all four major federal parties favouring a hard line with U.S. negotiators. Bloc Québécois voters are the most emphatic, at 79%, followed by NDP voters at 69%.

Perhaps most noteworthy, 58% of current Liberal voters also favour taking a hard line and making no more concessions. Even among Conservative voters, 51% prefers the harder approach.

Canadians also appear willing to support retaliatory trade measures should negotiations continue to drag on.

According to Léger, seven in ten would support imposing a special tax on electricity and fossil fuels sold to the United States.

And when it comes to U.S. alcohol—which remains absent from many provincially managed liquor stores—64% of Canadians support maintaining the ban on American products.

Taken together, these numbers point to a fairly clear message from Canadian voters: patience for further concessions appears to be running thin.

More analysis to come this week.

Thanks to all subscribers of this newsletter who make 338Canada possible.🍁❤️

Read the full Léger report here.