‘Sell America’ Debate Re-Emerges as US Policies Sow Some Doubts

(Bloomberg) -- Global bond and currency investors are debating if it's time to dust off last year's 'Sell America' trade after a flurry of economic-policy decisions out of Washington over the past two weeks.

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First, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's preference for sparse communication cast doubt on the central bank's commitment to fighting inflation, especially since an unusually high number of officials were in favor of an immediate interest-rate hike.

Then Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signed off on US support to help Japan prop up the yen — the first such coordinated effort in almost 30 years. While the intervention was carried out via the euro and designed to avoid disrupting the Treasury market, it still risks putting pressure on the dollar.

With fiscal concerns, a trade war and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East also threatening to underpin inflation, some in markets are starting to reassess their taste for US bonds and the dollar amid concern that US policy is again becoming hard to decipher.

The 30-year Treasury yield has risen above 5% to its highest since 2007 although has retraced some of its move since the Fed meeting, while the dollar has weakened against almost every Group-of-10 currency over the past one month despite higher US yields, which would normally support it.

"Bessent and Warsh are a double whammy to global markets that investors can't ignore," said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management, who is selling Treasuries and the dollar partly because of the policy uncertainty.

"They have to start pricing risks of their policies into the dollar, into the Treasuries curve, and in fact, they're doing it right now. It's the Trump administration premium," he said.

The "Sell America" trade gained traction last April, when President Donald Trump's tariff announcements triggered a simultaneous selloff in the dollar, stocks and US government bonds. While the move quickly faded, it challenged the assumption that the US could indefinitely rely on the dollar's reserve-currency status and deep capital markets to finance widening fiscal deficits.

This time, the picture is more nuanced. US stocks remain resilient, with a rally in technology stocks pushing the S&P 500 to a record high. Flows also suggest ongoing faith in the US. Foreign investors held $9.4 trillion of Treasuries as of May, up 4% from a year earlier, according to US government data.


  • Goldman Skeptical of Dollar-Dominance Threats After Yen Support

    (Bloomberg) -- US support for Japan's efforts to prop up the yen is unlikely to damage the dollar's status as the most dominant reserve currency in the world, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

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    Japan is the biggest foreign investor in the $31 trillion Treasuries market, and last month's joint currency intervention has stirred some concern that US support for the yen — likely aimed at preventing unwanted volatility in US bonds — could erode confidence in dollar reserves. Such an argument assumes the US might try to hinder others from selling Treasuries in the future, Goldman said.

    "This seems like quite a leap," strategists including Michael Cahill wrote in a note. "We are skeptical of arguments that this is negative for the dollar's reserve status."

    The bank pointed to Japan's access to the Federal Reserve's Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Repo Facility, which allows foreign central banks to raise dollars against their Treasuries without selling them. It said that highlights a key advantage of the dollar: deep capital markets for building reserves in normal times and access to liquidity during periods of stress.

    "We believe Treasury's actions and the availability and utility of the FIMA facility help demonstrate that no one else can come close to competing with the US dollar's usefulness, network effects, and supporting infrastructure right now," the strategists added.

    The joint campaign by Washington and Tokyo to shore up the yen is the first of its kind in almost three decades. While the move was carried out via the euro to avoid disrupting the Treasuries market, some investors have raised concerns that direct US support for the yen could inadvertently weaken the dollar and dent the appeal of US bonds as reserve assets.

    The mechanics of the intervention have also drawn scrutiny. The Financial Times reported that the US blindsided the European Central Bank last week, only informing officials in Frankfurt after it sold euros to buy yen.

    What Bloomberg Strategists Say...

    "Factors behind the dollar and bond market appear to be more entrenched. For the greenback, the ripple effect of joint US-Japan intervention in the yen is another major catalyst."


  • US Sold Euros to Save the Yen, Europe Found Out After

    US sold euros to prop up yen, euro currency symbol. Photo by BeInCrypto
    US sold euros to prop up yen, euro currency symbol. Photo by BeInCrypto

    The US Treasury sold euros, not dollars, to help prop up the Japanese yen last week. The European Central Bank only learned about the trade after it had already closed.

    Christine Lagarde and Scott Bessent only spoke about the move a day later. However, by then, the New York Federal Reserve had already executed the sale for the US Treasury.

    Why Washington Reached for Euros Instead of Dollars

    Historically, Western central banks have relied on mutual consultation since World War II. They typically planned currency interventions together in advance.

    Washington broke that pattern this time. In contrast, it notified the ECB only after completing the trade.

    USD/JPY tumbled from around 163 to below 158 in late July, and has stabilized near 158.40 as of August 7
    USD/JPY tumbled from around 163 to below 158 in late July, and has stabilized near 158.40 as of August 7. Image Source: Trading View

    The choice of euros was deliberate, not accidental. Selling dollars might have signaled a retreat from Bessent's strong-dollar policy, so the Treasury tapped its euro reserves instead.

    Some analysts argue the yen carry trade rule no longer holds, adding pressure to defend the currency through other means. Bessent has since addressed the intervention directly in his own yen intervention explanation.

    Meanwhile, economists have linked the move to concerns that Japan could sell US Treasuries in response.

    Europe Reacts to Being Left Out

    Senior ECB officials called the episode a break from decades of coordination. One person close to the discussions called the moment unprecedented.

    A Treasury spokesperson defended the decision.

    "Decisions regarding the allocation of the Exchange Stabilization Fund are made by the US Treasury, taking into account assessments by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve of market liquidity, valuations and other relevant considerations."

    However, a senior Trump administration official pushed back on the criticism. The official said Washington respects the confidentiality of talks with foreign counterparts and contrasted that approach with the ECB's handling of the matter.

    Market Fallout and What Comes Next

    The intervention pushed the yen from roughly ¥164 to about ¥158 against the dollar. Japanese equities absorbed the shock with only modest losses.

    Traders now price in a 44% chance the Bank of Japan raises rates in September. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has flagged rising inflation risks as a reason for caution.

    The episode leaves European policymakers wondering whether this was a one-off. It could also preview how the Trump administration handles currency defense with allies going forward.

    Read the Original story US Sold Euros to Save the Yen, Europe Found Out After by Darryn Pollock at beincrypto.com


  • Freefalling yen sparks rare US intervention as Scott Bessent vows 'whatever it takes.' Will Americans pay the price?

    A compilation image of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
    Jiji Press/ Getty Images; Win McNamee/ Getty Images

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    A plunging Japanese yen has Washington taking one of its rarest financial actions in years.

    After the US joined Japan in a rare effort to buy Japanese yen and support the struggling currency, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said (1) the Trump administration would do "whatever it takes" to keep supporting the yen.

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    He added that the US would support Japan "in a way that helps the American economy, the American taxpayer."

    The joint intervention (2), the first coordinated US-Japan effort to support the yen since 2011 (3), comes after the Japanese currency sank to roughly 40-year lows of around ¥164 per US dollar, before rebounding to about ¥156 following Friday's intervention.

    Why the yen's strength matters

    A stronger (or weaker) yen may sound like Japan's problem, but eventually, it affects what Americans pay for some imported goods.

    Imagine a Toyota vehicle manufactured in Japan sells for ¥4.5 million. At an exchange rate of ¥164 per US dollar, that vehicle costs an American importer roughly $27,400 before tariffs, shipping, dealer markups and taxes.

    If coordinated intervention helps strengthen the yen to ¥150 per dollar, the same vehicle would cost roughly $30,000. That's an increase of about 9.5% driven solely by the exchange rate.

    Consumers won't automatically see a 9.5% hike at the dealership. Car manufacturers frequently cushion exchange-rate swings (4) by absorbing the costs into their profit margins or using financial hedging.

    But exchange-rate shifts are one factor that can influence what Americans ultimately pay for imported Japanese products, including vehicles, electronics, cameras and industrial equipment.

    Ironically, Japan has been dealing with the opposite problem. The yen's prolonged weakness has made imported goods more expensive for Japanese households, fueling inflation and weighing on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's already-plummeting approval ratings (5).

    Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going


  • Nudge from Bessent firms case for BOJ rate hike in September

    FILE PHOTO: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to members of the media at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 30, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper/File Photo · Reuters

    By Leika Kihara

    TOKYO, Aug 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's public views on Japan's monetary policy have all but locked the central bank into an interest rate hike at its September meeting and raised questions about Washington's influence over domestic policy.

    Bessent has had a busy media schedule since the joint intervention in the currency markets by Tokyo and Washington ‌last week to shore up the battered yen, promoting the rare co-operation as a much-needed win for Japan's economy.

    For Bessent, however, intervention needs to be followed up with rate hikes to arrest ‌market fears the Bank of Japan is behind the curve in combatting inflation, concerns that have pushed up JGB yields and risked spilling over to already rising U.S. Treasury yields.

    While that imperative aligns with the BOJ's current central view on the need for further rate ​hikes, there are concerns about the precedent U.S. pressure is setting for Japanese policy.

    Kazuo Momma, a former BOJ executive who is currently executive economist at private think tank Mizuho Research Institute, said the joint intervention has given the BOJ a free hand to raise rates - but that comes with a catch.

    "Intervention is a strategy that buys time and could end up being a waste without being followed up with BOJ rate hikes," said Momma. "The fact the United States joined in the intervention is very grave. If the Japanese government were to block the BOJ from raising rates, that would be an act of betrayal to the United States."

    Japan's law grants the central bank independence from political ‌interference, but also requires close coordination with the government's economic policy.

    The BOJ has ⁠historically come under political pressure to fend off external shocks, such as volatile yen moves, with monetary policy.

    CLOSE CONVERSATIONS

    The joint intervention appears to have worked for now, giving the yen more enduring support than past unilateral actions by Japan have.

    In an interview with public broadcaster NHK, Bessent said he was sure BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will "do what ⁠is best" for Japan's economy suffering from a weak yen.

    In a separate interview with CNBC, Bessent also urged Japan to follow intervention with "policy and fundamentals" to address what he saw as a substantial undervaluation of the yen.

    "Through our conversations with them, we believe that they are going to continue to put the right policies in place that will lead the yen to get back to more of a normal equilibrium price," Bessent told CNBC about his discussions with Japan.


  • Bessent says he is sure BOJ chief Ueda will 'do what is best', NHK reports

    FILE PHOTO: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to members of the media at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 30, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper/File Photo · Reuters

    By Leika Kihara

    TOKYO, Aug 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was sure Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will "do what ‌is best" for the country's economy, public broadcaster NHK reported on ‌Wednesday.

    "I do believe that part of the inflation uptick in Japan was a result of the weak ​yen and also the energy prices," Bessent told NHK in an interview.

    As energy prices come down and excessive yen weakness is fixed, Japan's inflation will slow, allowing Japan and the yen to "go into a virtuous cycle," he said.

    The remarks, which follow ‌a series of comments from ⁠Bessent in the past calling for higher Japanese rates, heighten the chance of an interest rate hike by the BOJ at ⁠its next policy meeting on September 17 and 18.

    Bessent had said he would meet Ueda at a U.S.-hosted G20 finance leaders' meeting at the end of August, which ​would precede ​the BOJ's September policy meeting.

    Japan and the ​United States launched a rare ‌joint yen-buying intervention last week and vowed to take further action if needed to shore up the currency, underscoring their resolve to arrest the yen's slide to 40-year lows.

    WEAK YEN HURTING ASIAN CURRENCIES

    In a separate interview with Japan's Nikei newspaper published on Wednesday, Bessent said the joint yen intervention was aimed at preventing the ‌currency's weakness from spreading instability across Asian ​currencies.

    "Many Asian currencies follow the Japanese yen currently. ​Korean won is weak because the ​yen is weak. Many people believe China has a very ‌undervalued currency and they are reluctant ​to strengthen the currency ​too much just because of yen weakness," Bessent was quoted as saying by Nikkei.

    When asked about growing market expectations of an early rate hike ​by the BOJ, Bessent ‌told Nikkei: "I have known Governor Kazuo Ueda for 15 years. I have ​great confidence in him. He is very market-savvy."

    (Reporting by Leika Kihara; ​Editing by Edmund Klamann and Shri Navaratnam)


  • Scott Bessent Draws on Hedge Fund Instincts to Help Rescue Yen

    (Bloomberg) -- Scott Bessent wanted to help Japan prop up its currency. So he decided to let the media spy on his notepad, where a to-do list included buying as much as $10 billion in yen.

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    It was an unorthodox tactic, but that's become a Bessent hallmark. In a previous life on Wall Street, he made $1 billion on big currency bets while working for George Soros. As President Donald Trump's Treasury secretary, he launched a high-risk rescue plan for Argentina. Now he's coming to the aid of another US ally.

    The joint campaign by Washington and Tokyo to shore up the yen is the first of its kind in almost three decades. Beyond the notepad maneuver, Bessent has tapped a range of tools that surprised some Treasury watchers, like deploying US holdings of euros and talking up a Federal Reserve facility that Japan could use.

    "I feel like he's more thinking like, well, this would've been a good move when I was a trader," said Stephen Myrow, a managing partner at Beacon Policy Advisors and former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration. "He is very comfortable operating outside of his lane because his lane isn't a traditional Treasury lane. It's market credibility."

    Early results were encouraging, with the intervention helping the Japanese currency rebound from a four-decade low. Still, with traders focused on the rally's staying power, Bessent signaled Tuesday there'll be further action. He said the yen's weakness raised the risk of broader currency depreciation across Asia.

    If these maneuvers suggest a more active approach to economic diplomacy, it could be a result of the Treasury chief's professional background. Most recent predecessors, like former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executives Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin, came from the so-called sell-side of finance, where risk management is a key concern.

    Bessent, with a decades-long hedge fund career, is different.

    "We never had a true buy-side person," said Myrow. "He's acting more like a macro trader than a traditional Treasury secretary."

    Bessent laid out his philosophy of economic statecraft in a June speech to the Economic Club of New York. In practice, part of it involves shoring up countries willing to tag-team with Washington.


  • US dollar shaken after intervention to strengthen Japanese yen

    US dollar shaken after intervention to strengthen Japanese yen
    US dollar shaken after intervention to strengthen Japanese yen
    Scroll back up to restore default view.

    The US dollar (DX-Y.NYB) has weakened after the US and Japan jointly intervened to boost the yen.

    Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre takes a closer look at the dollar's decline and the yen's growing strength, comparing it to prior events in the yen's history.

US dollar shaken after intervention to strengthen Japanese yen