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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    27 Nov 2022
    This is a thread about Murder Victimization by Age, Race, and Sex using the CDC WONDER dataset (primarily "2021 Provisional") from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) These data are specifically Murder Victims, and provide no direct info about Murderers
  • user avatar
    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    You can get this dataset from: wonder.cdc.gov >Multiple Cause of Death (Provisional) >>ICD-10 113 Cause >>>Assault (homicide) Note the Data Use Restrictions All charts in this thread will comply with this, which may result in some charts having large age ranges
    20:40 · 27 Nov 2022
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    27 Nov 2022
    One nice thing about WONDER is it lets you easily compare rates across years Here we can see Murder Victimization rates increased from 2020 to 2021 for all Black Male age ranges except 25-29
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    27 Nov 2022
    In fact, all groups except White Females had an overall increase in Murder Victimization from 2020-2021 Hispanic Females had the highest relative increase, with 2021 being ~1.176x the rate of 2020
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    27 Nov 2022
    Hispanic Males are 3x more likely to be murdered than White Males Hispanic Females are 1.5x more likely to be murdered than White Females This is an interesting result. I wonder: does it apply to the commission of Murder, too?
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    28 Nov 2022
    White Males get murdered at ~2.6x the rate of White Females Black Males get murdered at ~7.1x the rate of Black Females Hispanic Males get murdered at ~5.2x the rate of Hispanic Females
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    28 Nov 2022
    Black Males get murdered at ~14.1x the rate of White Males Hispanic Males get murdered at ~3.0x the rate of White Males Take care to note the substantial age variances, as well as the attrition with age
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    28 Nov 2022
    Here we see that, e.g., Hispanics are 29% of the 15-17 Population but experience 64% of the 15-17 Murders Note: some, but not all, of this disparity in murder victimization across ages is explained by the increased proportion of Hispanics in younger age groups
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    29 Nov 2022
    This is the 2013 NCHS Urban–Rural Classification Scheme for Counties Large Central Metro is ~Inner City Large Fringe Metro is ~Big City Suburbs Micropolitan & NonCore are ~Rural Small Metro behaves like Rural areas for Murders Due to small numbers, I have combined these 3
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    29 Nov 2022
    Due to differences in how CDC categorizes Races ("4 Bridged Races" vs "6 Single Races"), the 2021 Provisional data is only directly comparable to 2018-2022 Based on years with overlapping data (2018-2020), I scaled the "6 Race" 2021 data to estimate how it would look as "4 Race"
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    29 Nov 2022
    We see 3 regimes in the Black Victim data: 2010-2014 -- Suburb & Rural equally safe, Inner City most dangerous 2015-2019 -- Ferguson era: Increased murder, disproportionately impacting Rural areas 2020-Now -- Floyd era: Massive increase in murder, everywhere
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    29 Nov 2022
    We see a fairly similar progression for White Victims, with some notable differences [Wealthy, Liberal,] White Suburbs of big cities have always been the safest, and Rural the most dangerous For some White areas, 2021 has seen a decrease in Murder Victimization relative to 2020
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    29 Nov 2022
    Here we see the ongoing Inner Citification of Rural America In 2010, the inner city was 2.07x more deadly than rural areas By 2019, that difference collapsed to 1.28x We note the Floyd effect disproportionately hit Large/Medium Urban areas, modestly reversing the Citification
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    29 Nov 2022
    Population/Population Density Growth doesn't seem to explain these results From 2010 to 2020, Black (5-44) population grew by: - 4.3% in Rural areas - 4.8% in Big Inner Cities - 11.7% in Medium Cities - 15.5% in Big City Suburbs
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    ~~datahazard~~
    @fentasyl
    27 Jan 2023
    196 Black Murders happen in STL City every year per 100k Black STL City residents An underappreciated part of CDC WONDER is that it provides 2 different sets of Murder Victimization location data: - County of Residence of Decedent - County of Occurrence where the Decedent died
~~datahazard~~ on X: "You can get this dataset from: https://t.co/BQ1jITCkDd >Multiple Cause of Death (Provisional) >>ICD-10 113 Cause >>>Assault (homicide) Note the Data Use Restrictions All charts in this thread will comply with this, which may result in some charts having large age ranges https://t.co/3IW4L0yRCK" / X