Outlier? Jay Collins internal poll shows LG at 20% support

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins’ campaign says the battle for the Republican nomination for Governor is a “two-man race” with U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, based on an internal poll it commissioned.

“People are clamoring for a legitimate poll on the Florida Governor’s Race. We did one,” said Collins consultant Ted Veerman.

The survey shows Donalds with just 37% support, well below his 51% average in public polls tracked by 270toWin.

Collins is the apparent beneficiary of that erosion. The poll puts his support at 20% — roughly triple his 6.5% public polling average.

The candidate said the poll showed him making progress the way Ron DeSantis did when he ran eight years ago.

“The latest polling confirms what we’ve been seeing across Florida: our campaign is growing because of supporters like you. Sound familiar? It should. This is starting to look a lot like 2018. The political establishment doesn’t decide who becomes Governor. Florida Republicans do. Governor Ron DeSantis gave Florida eight of the strongest years in our state’s history. I’m running to continue that Florida Blueprint, protect what we’ve built, and keep Florida leading the nation,” Collins said on X.

Veerman told POLITICO Florida that television ads from the “Quiet Professionals FL” political committee and Collins’ travel across the state have boosted those numbers.

Businessman James Fishback has 9% support in the survey, nearly matching his 8.5% public polling average. Former House Speaker Paul Renner has 2%.

Pollster David Jay Wolfson surveyed 934 voters between July 2 and July 6 using a text-to-web methodology, according to Playbook.

The survey went into the field the same day Collins debated Fishback and Renner on a podcast, consultant John Cardillo noted.

Collins has said before that his internal polling differs dramatically from public surveys. In April, before the television ads began running, he claimed to be at “15% to 18%.”

The candidate holds a press conference Thursday afternoon, and the poll’s release seems timed to project viability after a series of negative news items.

According to a report first published by POLITICO Florida and later discussed widely on social media, senior staffers have accused Collins of making threats of violence in the workplace during moments of frustration.

Layla Collins, who serves on the State Board of Education, has also denied allegations that she created anonymous social media accounts to criticize DeSantis for withholding an endorsement of the Lieutenant Governor as his successor.

Jay Collins has struggled to fundraise recently beyond a $5 million check from a single donor. In the week ending June 26, he raised nearly $15,500 in hard money and just $100 for his political committee. An additional $15,000 came in June 29, according to the committee’s website, which was last updated that date. His campaign had roughly $3.5 million to spend at last check.

Donalds has raised approximately $90 million, including roughly $2 million during the week ending June 26.