If the situation in the south recently improved, it continues to worsen in the Donbas, especially on the Sloviansk front.
Russian 🇷🇺 forces continue to push west after they took Siversk (7 months ago) and have down nearly half of the path leading to Siversk. The current situation is not very good for Ukraine 🇺🇦 in this direction.
🔹With Siversk, Soledar and Bakhmut, Russian forces have a very good accumulation possibility, reinforced by the large Donbas industrial and mining complexes. It is therefore easier to have troops ready for assault at any moment. Their logistics are hit very hard, especially before entering Siversk or Soledar (mid-range strikes), but it's obviously not enough to slow the momentum.
🔹On the other hand, the Ukrainian logistical situation is slowly degrading. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are being hit daily, the Sloviansk-Mykolaivka roads are under constant fire and this also threatens roads for Lyman, on the other side of the river. The Ukrainians increasingly rely on UGVs for their logistics in this direction.
🔹Russian purpose is clearly to take control of Mykolaivka before the end of the year, as well as the heights around Rai Oleksandrivka, to be able to target logistics entering Sloviansk and launch the battle for the city next year. We can see this with the intense air-strike campaign ongoing all around Mykolaivka. Russian infiltrations are quite deep and part of the grey zone is under their control.
🔹Recently, Russian forces started to pressure Kramatorsk with infiltreations are flag raising west of the Donets Canal, which serves as the main fortification line in the region (white arrows west of the blue line). Russians have been sighted in multiple villages there, but it is not yet critical, as they didn't consolidate their control there. The risk is that they can secure crossing and threaten Kramatorsk from the East.
This situation remains the most difficult for Ukrainian forces, this is where they lost the biggest amount of territory this year. From Kostiantynivka to here is the main offensive action currently being taken by Russians.
Map base : @M0nstas
