BERNSTEIN: Global Memory
> Analysts forecast a 2-2.5x increase in HBM Average ASP year-over-year (YoY) heading into 2027. This price hike is expected across all generations of HBM (HBM3, HBM3E, HBM4, etc.).
> DRAM industry prices are forecasted to continue rising after 2QCY26 (though at a slowing quarter-over-quarter rate) and are expected to hit their cyclical peak in CY2027.
> Conventional DRAM currently generates considerably more revenue per wafer capacity than HBM.
> The gross margin gap between conventional DRAM and HBM is expected to significantly contract by 2027, with conventional DRAM GM approaching the mid-90% range and HBM GM climbing near 90%.
> Samsung is projected to gain HBM market share by bit shipment (climbing from 28% in CY2025 to 46% by CY2027E), driven by better HBM4 performance and increased capacity.
> Due to the massive expected price increases, HBM's contribution to total DRAM revenue is forecasted to experience a sharp, V-shaped rebound for all major players starting next year, hitting an industry total of nearly 40% by CY2027E and up to ~45% by CY2028E.
> Across all three major memory makers, earnings are modeled to reach a peak in the second half of calendar year 2027 (2HCY27). Samsung's EPS is expected to spike just past 20,000 KRW. SK hynix's EPS is projected to max out near 150,000 KRW. Micron's Non-GAAP quarterly EPS is forecasted to push close to $47.00–$50.00 USD.
