r/MU_Stock

This is the bottom. I'll remain patient and let the market justify this speculation. Story isn't over yet. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong.

It’s been a nice run.

I now will use the money to put a down payment on a house!

Will it go up more? I bet it will. But I need to lock in some gains.

Thanks a lot Mu.

Congrats you gave a huge discount to institutions. Just look at the last few candles before closing, and the massive volume support this stock got.

after last weeks crash and todays crash, paper hands were shaken off of this stock so that the diamond hands can take the inevitable profits.

Limit order for 80 more shares of MU at $900 was executed this morning. I will continue to buy more at every 1-1.5 sigma movement. No margin, no leveraged MUU means I have all the time in the world to wait out mr. market being irrational. This is the same bs playbook after last earnings, and the robound was even more violent than the initial 30% dip. All I know is 86% profit margin on 50B profit, not even drug lords can do those types of numbers, and I dont have to kill anyone to get into this business. LFG!

Per mod comment, here is how and why I picked one sigma for anyone interested:

One sigma just means price range covers one standard dev of expected movement from current price. Say current price is $1,000, one sigma is $900 and $1,100, that means there is a 68.2% probability that the stock will be within that range. One quick dirty way to calc one sigma is pick an ATM option, determine the ATM straddle (call+put), and multiple it by 1.25. Take the current price and add/substract by the total and you get your one sigma prices through the option expiration date. Hope that helps!

As to why I picked one sigma, while statistically one sigma means there is approx 16.6% chance the stock will dip below one sigma, on a stock that i believe in the fundamentals with thesis intact, that just means market overreacted and the rebound will be fierce. I sometimes get greedy and pick 1.5 sigma to try to lock a better price, if it goes down that much great i got a deal, if not, then I am fine just holding what i have.

Everyone remembers where they were in 2023 when NVIDIA single-handedly kicked off the generative AI bull run. It was widely considered the most explosive, unprecedented scaling event in corporate history.

But if you actually line up the numbers Micron ($MU) just dropped for FQ3 2026 against NVIDIA’s peak 2023 "AI awakening" year (Fiscal 2024), Micron's current trajectory is arguably even more insane.

When NVIDIA was at its absolute peak growth acceleration in late 2023 (Q4 FY24), it grew revenue by a jaw-dropping 265% Year-over-Year ($22.10B vs. $6.05B). We thought that was a permanent ceiling for large-cap tech.

Micron today: Just printed $41.46 Billion for the quarter against $9.30 Billion last year

That is a face-melting 345% Year-over-Year revenue explosion. Micron is adding raw top-line dollars faster than 2023 NVDA did.

This is from Claude

Estimates vary by source and scope (4 vs 5 hyperscalers, global CSPs, AI-specific vs total capex), but here's the current picture:

**2026:**

- Big 4 hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta): **~$725B** combined AI capex, up 77% from ~$410B in 2025

- Top 5 (adding Oracle/Apple depending on source): estimates range **$600–830B**

- Top 9 global CSPs (including ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu): TrendForce estimates **~$830B**

**2027:**

- Evercore and Bank of America both project total AI/tech capex **exceeding $1 trillion**

- Morgan Stanley sees Alphabet alone spending up to $250B that year

**2026 + 2027 combined:**

- Goldman Sachs estimates total hyperscaler capex for 2025–2027 will reach **$1.15 trillion** (more than double 2022–2024 combined)

- If you add the ~$725B (2026) to the $1T+ (2027) projections for the big 4 alone, that's roughly **$1.7–1.8 trillion** for just those two years

Worth noting: these are guided/estimated figures, not actuals — they get revised (usually upward) after each earnings cycle, and some analysts flag bubble concerns since capex is now outpacing free cash flow at several of these companies.

End of Claude

How accurate is this info?

I keep seeing post after post about “what’s happening”, “why did it go down”, the sky is falling”, etc.

This is my 1st post here but I am not new to MU. I actually first bought it in march of 25 for $90. Did I hold the whole time. No. What I have learned the past two years is that patience = winning.
I tried to sell calls and time the market and you never win trying to do that. If I would have just held and not tried to time things I would have been better off (originally had 700 shares)

So my advice to all these people who can’t handle the big swings is either sell and find less volatile stocks or be patient.

Patience will pay off !

touchwood, i hope i didn’t jinx

Iran war starting back up, oil is spiking, Korea is down, but overnights are up? lol make it make sense 😂

SAMSUNG just reported THE HIGHEST operating profit for a quarter of any company in the history of the world, but memory stocks are still selling off because analysts wrongly forecasted the revenue number by about 0.5% too high. This whole market is a fucking joke. Only money losing companies like SpaceX get high valuations. Actual money makers get sold.

It all started back in February 2025 when I was building a new gaming PC.

Fast forward to November 2025, and I decided to check the current prices of the components I had bought. I couldn't believe my eyes—the exact same RAM stick I had purchased had skyrocketed from $120 to $500.
Seeing that insane real-world demand first-hand was my ultimate lightbulb moment. By December, I took the plunge and allocated 50% of my entire portfolio into Micron (MU).

The real turning point came after their Q1 earnings report. The numbers were so strong and the outlook so bullish that I made a massive move: I sold the rest of my AMD stock and went completely all-in on MU and double my leverage by buying MU LEAPS.

Looking at my portfolio today, I still can’t believe the incredible wealth that single decision has generated. It has been absolutely life-changing.

That’s my story—what about you guys?

When mainstream media outlets need to wheel out looneys like Ed Zitron to support their narrative, you know they are desperate. That guy is laughing all the way to the bank selling his stupid premium newsletter to his gullible crowd of fans.

What exactly happened between ATH last week and "AI spending is dead"? The fake and completely misinterpreted META news? That's right, nothing happened. There was literally no news changing anything. Chill out.

Current market trajectory, support, and rally support $1100 next week and $1300 based on charts. Fundamentals still here. Demand is still high.

Diamond ✋

Reason why we're tanking today and prob why institutions were derisking....

Hi Guys,

How does the sk hynix listing affect memory stocks?
Ir is apparenty oversubscribed, so I would expect the Kospi to go up with rising sk hynix in USA.

But how will micron be affected?

Cheers

I guess they hate SK and Samsung now

What a year, what a day! 19% in a day. I couldn’t be happier. I’ve been investing and trading for more than 30 years and this is a once in a lifetime gain. Congratulations folks!!

Disclosure: I am not neutral as I invested a large share of my net worth more than a year ago. I am basically tied to MU at this point.

Since the last MU results, people have been freaking out about MU stock reaction. My personal take is that a sell the news effect was unavoidable but the current retracement seems absolutely excessive and a market overreaction.

My Initiative: present my argument as to why I believe Micron is actually oversold and let the community debate over it (ideally, arguments and counter arguments).

1. Bubble or not, the memory market grew tremendously over the last few years and is unlikely to fall back as low as before. Quantitative metrics would be better, but there have been thousands of new data centers being erected. Even if we don't build any new ones, they will still require maintenance, modernisation and new chips.

2. AI is still nascent. The usage of LLM is still diffusing across the society : coding, technical support, management, research, medicine, factory blue collar, finance, marketing, ... All are rapidly integrating LLM in their workflows in some form or another. LLM are producing results even though they are still not replacing full jobs. For example, a doctor might use AI to understand legal proceedings, get second advice on a result or analyse an image (I have seen all those applications being done quite a lot). It doesn't necessarily increase the number of treated patients but it certainly improves the quality of the diagnosis. In my domain (research), it is now absolutely common to use LLM to find relevant research paper, refine your ideas, tracks some news, perform rapid result analysis, generate code,... In this case, we are definitely faster on projects of fixed size but we discovered that we tend to increase the scope of our research quite a lot. You could say that we are indeed more productive. The demand for LLM still has to run as people learn to interact and adopt it in their life. Competition will naturally create an environment forcing people to adopt them. Granted, great products can form bubbles before taking off, it is part of the process. I simply underly that the expansion dynamic is still well and alive and a mass adoption typing point due to competition pressure might like somewhere close in the future. It is already the case in specific sector (I prefer not to expand on this one as this is still kind of a taboo).

3. Ai is not the world. Micron has signed multiple memory deals but not only with tech companies. Large motor companies (such as Ford this week) also signed deals as cars also use memory. Several large non techs companies still have to sign deals.

4. Robotic is rising (but ok, this is for the future). LLM and ai frenzy drove up RnD spending and results are showing up. A new type of model, championed by Yann le Cun, called JEPA (its a large family of models) has already displayed impressive results in robotics. Robots taking months to be programmed by teams of engineer can now use JEPA models fine tuning on their specific architecture to control them in a matter of days. This is truly a robotic revolution. Robots use an awfull amount of memory (buffer, vast amount of messy physical world data, embarked systems). This is not for next month but it will keep ramping up demand over time.

5. Cyclicality is still there but probably smoothed. The rise on market size also mean an increase in demand points. A datacenters operator might not update all of its datacenters at the same time and smooth its consumption. When a new memory chip arise or a new GPU, not all datacenters update instantly to the new product. In a small market, there is not enough demand to smooth the initial command spike with delayed command but it is increasingly likely in a larger market. I do not have the quantitative data to prove this shift toward smoother demand pikes but it appears likely.

A second scenario against cyclicality is the development of two orthogonal demand base : the RAM base and the HBM base. Consumers have been starved as factories have been repurposed toward HBM. In case of a HBM reduction in demand, memory maker will balance with RAM. It is possible that this balance hurt margin and style create some cyclicality but it is unlikely that we will still see the wild swings of the past. Moreover, HBM demand is again also likely to be smoothed by the scale of demand.

6. The price impact. If you read the MU results carefully, you will notice that MU is basically selling all it's production and that further rise in margin, as of now, depends on price fluctuations. You might then conclude that this is likely mu revenue and margin spike. First a new factory has been inaugurated and those usually take months before reaching their full production (learning curve (great book about it : the origin of efficiency)). It is likely that micron production capacity is already increasing even though its other new factories are still in construction.

7. The hyperscaller margins and bottom lines. This is the weakest point in all of this. Google is basically hiding its real debt in the small text after the basic earnings tables. You should mentally add 400B in debt to Google. The same is true for the other large players (except maybe Apple where less is more (thanks to marketing)). The thing is that some of the signed contract fixed the price and are bidding. As long as the hyperscallers are able to pay, those contracts will stay valid and feed micron.

I am not saying that those arguments are perfect or that I have a beautiful ball allowing me to predict the future. I know I omitted some other macro aspects (inflation, us debt, geopolitical tensionS, fed, Europe and China slowdown, Japan debt interest...) but I believe those are more macro and not the core of the debate here. A pullback in Micron stock price was almost inevitable but that far seem extreme. I want to remember that commenters spend their time arguing that previous micron stock price of 1100 meant that micron results would have to be perfect and up to the wall street expectations, even a bit above. People were saying that it was extreme and almost impossible. Micron blew every expectations, going beyond perfection and still, people are freaking out and speaking about a spike were I see a market maturation, several near term expansion paths and futur opportunities. Micron is closer to a 2T than a 1T. Again, my personal take.

So, I would like to hear from people who are against/in favor of those arguments their take, arguments and logic.

Love you all

AI CAPEX is going to moon and THIS TIME memory has a big play. Data centre building are not gonna stop. Data centre will absolutely require lot of Memory. Any Mag 7 if says ai capex reduction it will become ai failure. That will not happen. So i m porting all in memory and data centre stock s.