AUGUST 2011
"Chinese growth will hit 3% well before the end of the decade."
Actual: 7.8% (2013), 6.6% (2018)
AUGUST 2011
"Beijing will seriously examine large-scale privatization within 3 years."
Actual: State sector expanded. Xi Jinping said no.
AUGUST 2011
"Household consumption will continue declining as a share of GDP."
Actual: Consumption share rose steadily.
AUGUST 2011
"BRICS have not decoupled in any meaningful sense."
Actual: China kept chugging. So did India. Decoupling, actually.
AUGUST 2011
"By 2013, all but the most recalcitrant will see China needs dramatic policy change."
Actual: Recalcitrants won. By a lot.
AUGUST 2011
"If PBoC resists rate cuts, China may slow in 2012."
Actual: PBoC cut rates. Growth stayed robust anyway.
The 3% Prophecy (2011–2017)
Pettis Said
"3–4% growth by 2013, sustained through the decade."
China Did
6–8% growth for years, ending the decade at ~6%.
OFF BY ROUGHLY A FACTOR OF 2
The Privatization Pipe Dream (2011)
Pettis Said
Massive SOE privatization "within 2–3 years."
China Did
Cracked down on tech, expanded party control over firms.
REVERSED COURSE ENTIRELY
The Deleveraging Dilemma (2017)
Pettis Said
"China cannot deleverage and grow simultaneously."
China Did
Grew the debt pile to ~300% of GDP while growing ~6%.
MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE, APPARENTLY
The Economist Bet (2012)
Pettis Said
China growth will fall to ~3% by end of decade.
The Economist Said
China overtakes the US as #1 economy by 2018.
BOTH LOST. CHINA: ~$14T IN 2020. US: ~$21T. PETTIS: HIS MIND.
The Lost Decade (2013)
Pettis Said
"Lost decade" imminent, based on every other investment-led boom.
China Did
Added an entire Japan's worth of GDP. Repeatedly.
THE LOST DECADE WAS PETTIS'S PREDICTION
The Consumption Claim (2011)
Pettis Said
Consumption will keep declining as share of GDP.
China Did
Consumption share rose from ~36% toward ~40%+.
DIRECTIONALLY INVERTED