Both COVID and capital markets are not what they seem. And the media's narrative on both is crumbling...

US Flash PMIs beat, Fed surveys mixed; Trump praises IBM; Israel's PM, Defence Minister and Military Chief says Israeli military will maintain security zone in southern Lebanon; Strong US 2yr note auction; Mixed European PMIs; Fed's Goolsbee says services inflation is a little disturbing; Russian says considering a complete ban on diesel exports; Italian PM is reportedly considering calling an Italian election as soon as April 2027; SPCX upsizes high-grade bond sale after strong demand

“Today, the Supreme Court affirmed an important tool DHS has long used to prevent criminals from entering our country. Big win!”

...massive negative gamma... 0-DTE fading the bounce... and forced-selling to rebalance in levered funds...brace!

Unlike traditional prediction market platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, users would likely rely on a video game-like points system instead of cash, although the company has not ruled out the eventual use of real-money betting...

The judge said the USDA lacked authority to waive the federal definition of food under the SNAP program.

"We estimate that a one-month delay in the full ramp..." 

 

 

The U.S. Senate has passed a housing bill that includes a ban on a Federal Reserve-issued CBDC through 2030...

The speed of change, the scale of change, the value of change...is unlike anything we've seen before.

A glimpse into what awaits the country if Democratic leaders carry out their threat to take over the Supreme Court...

The problem is this has all been tried before, and Russia only escalates in turn...

Nobody is positioned for "slightly less" AI spending. Yet that may be the single most important risk in markets today.

Overall, this was a medicore auction which priced on the strong side but whose internals offset that strength, printing a bit weak. Not like any of that mattered for the bond market, however, with yields trading near session lows across the curve.

State-held Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has issued a tender to sell naphtha cargoes to be picked up at Kuwaiti ports by buyers...

The problem is that “slightly less” is not embedded in anyone’s assumptions...

The clash comes as billions of dollars flow into the U.S. rare-earth industry amid efforts to reduce reliance on China, which continues to dominate global supply chains for the critical minerals...

Since QQQ's inception ('99), this is just the 5th time the QQQs gapped 2% when the day prior was within 2% of a 52wk high and the VIX was below 20.- BTIG

The world's biggest trade is finally showing signs of strain. Tech volatility is exploding, Korea's leverage-fueled AI boom is wobbling and key indices are testing important support levels.