Liky Li, a live-streamer based in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, often works between midnight and 8am to pitch music boxes and Harry Potter figurines to online consumers in cities such as London and Manchester, instead of those in local locations like Shenzhen or Shanghai.
A former English opera teacher and translator, Li said she is using "Live Shopping on TikTok Shop" - a service under popular short video-sharing platform TikTok - to reach a vast "blue ocean" of unexplored opportunity in cross-border e-commerce.
"Everyone is just getting started, so every step is hard to take, and no one will teach you anything," said Li, citing the belief of her unidentified boss who is a small Chinese merchant on US e-commerce platform Amazon.com. She said they are betting on the growing reach of TikTok Live to engage more consumers overseas.
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ByteDance-owned TikTok, which was projected by research firm eMarketer to have 1.5 billion monthly active users worldwide by the end of this year, launched its live-streaming service in 2019 and introduced new features last year. With the ongoing issues in the "made in China, sold on Amazon" business model, analysts expect TikTok to be well-positioned to transform into a major cross-border e-commerce platform for mainland Chinese merchants.
Guangzhou-based live-streamer Liky Li uses TikTok to engage online consumers in the UK. Photos: Handout alt=Guangzhou-based live-streamer Liky Li uses TikTok to engage online consumers in the UK. Photos: Handout>
China's cross-border e-commerce sector has enjoyed explosive growth since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic fast-tracked the adoption of online shopping in overseas markets, such as the US and Europe, where consumers who had favoured the bricks-and-mortar retail experience were forced to make more purchases over the internet.
TikTok, which recorded 1 billion monthly active users last September, started testing online retail features in Indonesia and Britain early last year. In November, ByteDance launched a seller's app for TikTok that enables merchants to manage their digital stores. Last August, TikTok partnered with Canadian e-commerce giant Shopify to initially allow users in the US and Britain to buy goods directly through the app.
Chinese exports via cross-border e-commerce have been growing annually at a robust pace. alt=Chinese exports via cross-border e-commerce have been growing annually at a robust pace.>
"[China's] cross-border live-streamers have just begun to develop this field," iiMedia's Zhang said. "They are using extensive and cost-effective [product] inventories across the country to start a new journey abroad."
Chinese exports via cross-border e-commerce grew 40.1 per cent annually in 2020 and 15 per cent in 2021, according to data from the country's General Administration of Customs. The monthly growth rate for Chinese exports, by comparison, was just above 6 per cent from 2009 to 2021.
"Cross-border e-commerce has expanded at an incredible rate," said Li Kuiwen, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs and a director at the Department of Statistics and Analysis, at a media briefing in January on recent trade developments. He said China's total cross-border e-commerce market last year reached 1.98 trillion yuan (US$313 billion).
That growth raises the stakes for TikTok to develop into a viable platform for Chinese merchants to engage more consumers overseas, while competing against services offered by the likes of Amazon, Alibaba Group Holding, eBay, Facebook and Instagram.
TikTok's rise in cross-border e-commerce comes as merchants belonging to the "made in China, sold on Amazon" community have scrambled to find alternative platforms to sell to foreign consumers. The US e-commerce giant has shut down thousands of Chinese-brand stores on its platform in a clampdown against fake customer reviews and other violations.
Other international platforms that Chinese merchants use to access overseas consumers include Alibaba-owned Lazada Group and Tencent Holdings-backed Shopee, both are focused on Southeast Asian markets. These two platforms also use live- stream shopping to engage consumers.
For online merchants, TikTok provides them with a social commerce business model - combining elements of social media and e-commerce - that has proved popular in China, according to Chen Yanfan, team leader at the Marketing Technology Information Centre of Tec-Do, a Guangzhou-based marketing agency.
It is a similar model to what the likes of Douyin, Pinduoduo and Xiaohongshu have developed in the local market, Chen said. He indicated that Tec-Do has received increased inquiries to buy advertising on both TikTok and Facebook.
China's retail social commerce market was expected to reach US$351.65 billion last year, eclipsing the US$36.62 billion total in the US for the same period, according to research firm eMarketer. That means consumers on the mainland spend about 10 times more on social commerce purchases than their US counterparts.
"Many local merchants [have just recently] heard about the overseas version of Douyin, but they didn't even know how to download it, not to mention use it for selling," said Huang Erxia, the live-streaming team leader at Shenzhen-based marketing agency Tituo Cross-Border. TikTok's move to open the UK, US and Indonesia markets to Chinese sellers has raised hopes for these merchants to "get their first pot of gold", she said.
The apps of TikTok and Amazon.com are displayed on a smartphone. Photo: Shutterstock alt=The apps of TikTok and Amazon.com are displayed on a smartphone. Photo: Shutterstock>
Huang said she believes that sooner or later, Chinese sellers will gain broader access worldwide through TikTok, which she expected to be more friendly to Chinese merchants than Amazon. "After all, Amazon's boss is American, but the boss of TikTok is Chinese," she said.
When asked about the prospects of opening new markets to Chinese sellers, a TikTok spokesman said: "Similar to other global e-commerce platforms, we welcome global suppliers as well as those from China ... As the business evolves, we may consider opening in more select markets in future."
With its broad worldwide audience, popular short video-sharing app TikTok is expected to develop into a major new platform for cross-border e-commerce. Photo: Shutterstock alt=With its broad worldwide audience, popular short video-sharing app TikTok is expected to develop into a major new platform for cross-border e-commerce. Photo: Shutterstock>
At present, TikTok faces plenty of work ahead to help raise awareness and build up consumer confidence for the merchants on its live-streaming service.
Bolade Kerr, a London-based millennial TikTok user, said she initially hesitated to buy fashion merchandise, such as bags, jewellery and clothing, being marketed on the platform.
"The online bidding approach of some shops [on TikTok Live] makes it appealing to buy the items, which also look good and are reasonably priced," Kerr said. She indicated, however, that she was unsure of how trustworthy these TikTok shops are.
Such doubts go both ways, according to Tituo Cross-Border's Huang. Chinese merchants, she said, have often asked whether the platform is reliable, including in terms of delivering the goods.
One of the most important steps, according to experts, is to hire live-streamers who speak good conversational English, understand the products and the company they represent, and more importantly, know their target audience.
Tec-Do's Chen, however, warned that hiring the right talent for certain target markets can be a delicate balancing act. "Domestic sellers may face high human capital cost if they want people with capable language skills ... or live-streamers working in specific markets," Chen said.
Chinese merchants' hiring strategy in that regard will ultimately depend on TikTok's policies, according to Huang. TikTok, for example, requires sellers to have local warehouses in Indonesia. If the cost of skilled talent is cheaper there than in China, then it would make sense to hire local live-streamers for that market, Huang said.
The advantage of Chinese merchants doing cross-border e-commerce today is that the country provides an extensive infrastructure - from production to logistics - to support them, according to iiMedia's Zhang. "China's solid logistics system was built on long-standing export practices," Zhang said.
Still, many small and medium-sized online merchants may need to get subsidies from either the government or platform operators to help support their cross-border e-commerce ambitions.
China's big e-commerce hubs, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou, all have policies to fund cross-border e-commerce merchants given this sector's contribution to the local economy, such as in terms of providing employment and generating taxes.
Southern Guangdong province, the nation's biggest manufacturing hub, last November announced the development of 30 new industrial zones dedicated to cross-border e-commerce that can support 100,000 companies.
TikTok, which recorded 1 billion monthly active users last September, started testing online retail features in Indonesia and Britain early last year. Photo: AP alt=TikTok, which recorded 1 billion monthly active users last September, started testing online retail features in Indonesia and Britain early last year. Photo: AP>
Live-streamer Li said TikTok provides coverage for shipping fees. Li's UK customers, for example, can have their shipping fees covered by TikTok when their order is worth more than £3 (US$4.10).
While live-streaming on TikTok has so far been Li's highest-paying gig, she said her physical health has suffered from the irregular working hours. Still, she intends to make live streaming a full-time job for a month - pitching products to thousands of viewers six times a week, for four to six hours a day - starting in March.
"If you manage to establish roots when there is an opportunity, you will survive and get ahead," she said.
Oracle Corp_ office logo-by Mesut Dogan via iStock
Oracle Corp. (ORCL) stock fell after its fiscal Q4 June 10 earnings release, showing negative free cash flow (FCF), despite higher operating cash flow. It expects a 25% higher capex ($70 billion vs. $56 this past fiscal year ending May 31) for the next fiscal year, as well as a new $20 billion equity raise, as reported by CNBC.
As a result, one of the only ways investors may be able to make money with ORCL is to sell short out-of-the-money (OTM) put options. The market has pushed up put option premiums so high that they are worth shorting for the high yields they provide. This article will describe that play.
ORCL closed at $184.29 on Thursday, June 18, well off from its June 10 price of $201.26 and a recent peak of $248.15 on June 1.
Shorting Prior ORCL Puts
I discussed shorting ORCL puts in a June 2 Barchart article, "Investors Bearish on Oracle Ahead of Earnings - Unusually Heavy ORCL Put Options Trading."
The $190 put option expiring this Friday, June 26 (24 days in the future) had a latest price of $3.10. At the time, ORCL was at $241.50, so this put strike price was 21% below the trading price (i.e., "out-of-the-money").
That gave investors an immediate income yield of $3.10/$190.00, or 1.63%. However, as of Friday, June 19, that put option premium is now "in-the-money" since it is higher than the stock price.
The premium is now $8.73. This means an investor who shorted these puts will now likely have their cash-secured collateral used to buy 100 shares at $190.00. However, their net breakeven point is $190.00 - $3.10, or $186.90. That is only $2.61 higher than the closing price last Thursday.
That implies an unrealized net loss of 1.40% (i.e., $2.61/$186.90). However, investors in this situation can repeat this play to help make up this unrealized loss.
Shorting New ORCL Puts
For example, put options at the $165.00 strike price, over 10% lower than its present price, expiring in 36 days, July 24, still have a high $4.25 midpoint premium. That means that a short-seller of this put option strike price can make an immediate income yield of 2.576%:
$4.25 / $165.00 = 0.02576 = 2.576%
ORCL puts expiring July 24 - Barchart - June 18, 2026
This means that an investor who posts $16,500 in collateral with their brokerage firm can enter an order to "Sell to Open" a put option at the $165.00. The account will then immediately receive $425.00 (i.e., $4.25 x 100 shares per put contract).
That also implies that, if ORCL were to fall 10.5% to $165.00 in the next month, the net breakeven will be even lower:
$165.00 - $4.25 = $160.75
That is 12.77% lower than last week's closing price. In other words, this provides a good potential buy-in point. Moreover, investors who shorted the $190.00 put and now have a 1.40% net loss can make up that loss by shorting this put contract.
Price Targets
Moreover, investors might have hope that ORCL has good upside. This is based on analysts' higher price targets.
In my last article, I suggested that ORCL could be worth more, but I declined to set a price target. I don't feel comfortable doing that until I can see that the company could potentially become free cash flow (FCF) positive.
However, other analysts have higher price targets. For example, Yahoo! Finance reports that the average of 43 analysts is $252.64 per share.
Similarly, Barchart's mean survey price target (PT) is $259.07, which is 40.6% higher. Moreover, AnaChart's survey of 32 analysts shows a 55% higher PT of $286.30.
The bottom line is that put options are high now due to excessive pessimism about ORCL stock.
That makes them worth shorting here with high short-put yields over the next month. Moreover, analysts have high price targets for ORCL for the next year.
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake, CFA did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
Cisco Systems, Inc_ HQ-by Sundry Photography via iStock
Over the last month, selling short out-of-the-money (OTM) Cisco Systems (CSCO) put and call options has worked well for existing shareholders. Moreover, for the next month, it looks like a good play as well.
CSCO closed at $119.52 on Thursday, June 18, up slightly (1.87%). Over the last month, the stock has stayed in a narrow range, as I suggested it might in my last Barchart article. That makes it ideal for selling short covered calls and cash-secured puts.
CSCO stock - last 3 months - Barhart - June 17, 2026
For example, the May 17 Barchart article, "Cisco Systems Reported Lower FCF and Margins - Has CSCO Stock Peaked?" discussed selling short both the June 18 expiry $130 call option and the $110.00 put option (trading price: $117.59). So, both of these were considered "out-of-the-money."
Both are likely to expire worthless on Friday, June 18, so an investor has earned good income from shorting these options.
For example, at the time, the June 18 expiry $130.00 call option premium was $1.50, giving investors a 1.276% one-month covered call yield (i.e., $1.50/$117.59). The call option was 11% higher than the stock price, so it was "out-of-the-money." Today, that call option premium is 1 cent and likely to expire worthless.
Similarly, the June 18 expiry $110.00 put premium was $2.12, for a strike price almost 6.5% below the trading price. That also gave investors an OTM short-put yield of 1.93% (i.e., $2.12/$110.00) for the next month. Today, it's down to just 1 cent as well.
So, it makes sense to do a new 1-month covered call and cash-secured put option play.
Moreover, analysts have raised their price targets for CSCO stock in the past month. That means we can raise the strike prices for these OTM short option plays.
New CSCO Price Targets
Last month, I discussed how Cisco Systems' stock could be worth $137.45 per share, or 16.9% higher than its existing price. That was based on revenue forecasts of $68.05 billion for the next fiscal year ending June 30, 2027, and a 20.25% FCF margin estimate. That resulted in a $13.89 billion FY 27 FCF forecast.
Since then, analysts have raised their forecasts to $68.55 billion. Using a slightly lower 20% FCF margin still results in an FCF forecast of $13.71 billion.
Next, using an average 2.5% FCF yield metric, Cisco's fair market value (FMV) could rise to $548.4 billion (i.e., $13.71b/0.025). That's 16.4% higher than Cisco's present market cap of $471.1 billion. So, my new price target (PT) is:
$119.52 price (June 17) x 1.164 = $139.12 (PT)
That's slightly higher than my prior $137.45 PT. Moreover, other analysts have hiked their PTs even more.
For example, Yahoo! Finance now shows that 26 analysts have an average PT of $126.05, up from $117.95. Similarly, Barchart's mean survey PT is $128.71, up from $89.24.
Also, AnaChart's survey PT is now $125.64, down from $128.44. The average of all three of these surveys is now $126.79, much closer to my PT than before, implying at least 6% upside.
The limited upside in these PTs suggests that investors should make additional income shorting OTM puts and calls.
Shorting OTM CSCO Puts and Calls
For example, the July 17 expiry CSCO option chain shows that investors can make good additional income shorting the following two options:
CSCO calls and puts expiring July 17 - Barchart - as of June 18, 2026
Both of these puts and calls are similar distances away from the trading price with similar premiums. However, the cash-secured put play has a slightly lower delta ratio, implying a lower chance that CSCO will drop over 8% to $110.00 over the next month.
The bottom line is that an investor can earn an extra 1.23% or so monthly income either shorting CSCO calls or puts. However, note that a covered call investor also can make realized or unrealized income if CSCO rises to at or below the strike price.
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake, CFA did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) rose 4.21% in premarket after Stifel raised its price target to $1,500 from $550 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing another significant upward shift in AI-driven memory demand. The firm now models approximately twice the DRAM average selling price per gigabit, excluding HBM, than Micron's own initial outlook implied. Current contract pricing stands above $2.50 per gigabit for server DRAM and above $1.50 per gigabit for consumer PC and mobile.
Stifel's fiscal fourth quarter August estimates reflect 20% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, which the firm called conservative if July-August contract pricing moves higher. CY2027 DRAM bit shipments are expected to decelerate from low-to-mid 20% growth in CY2026, though favorable pricing and mix are expected to keep margin structures robust over the next 12 to 18 months. Deutsche Bank and TD Cowen have also set $1,500 price targets, with TD Cowen projecting $150 in earnings per share for calendar year 2027.
The stock is up 770% over the past year, and more than 250% year to date.
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Microsoft's fair value estimate has been adjusted to US$561.39 from US$560.89, a small change that sits alongside other recent shifts in analyst price targets across the stock. These refined targets reflect an active debate over how much weight to give Microsoft's AI stack, capacity build out and Copilot rollout, with some research tying upside directly to perceived AI leadership and others trimming expectations on execution and dependency risks. As you read on, you will see how these moving targets shape the evolving narrative and what that means for tracking Microsoft over time.
Wells Fargo lifted its Microsoft price target to US$650 from US$625, highlighting confidence in the company's AI positioning at the software layer and its efforts on capacity, models, and Copilot, which feeds into more constructive views on long term monetisation potential.
Citizens initiated Microsoft with an Outperform rating and a US$550 price target, pointing to what it describes as a compelling vision for AI sovereignty and an end to end AI stack, along with what it calls a very attractive financial profile.
Benchmark's initiation and BofA's reinstatement of coverage on Microsoft with upbeat views, along with Wells Fargo's earlier upward price target revision, indicate that a group of firms sees the current valuation as supported by the company's AI and cloud roadmap.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Several firms, including UBS, Oppenheimer, Mizuho, Piper Sandler, TD Cowen, Baird, Citi and Barclays, have all cut Microsoft price targets, signaling concern about execution risks, AI model dependency and how much investors should currently pay for the AI story.
More cautious analysts have focused on the gap between Microsoft's AI narrative and near term delivery, indicating that higher capital needs, third party model reliance and the timing of Copilot adoption are key swing factors for how the stock's valuation is viewed.
Fair value is adjusted to US$561.39 from US$560.89, based on small tweaks to core assumptions.
Revenue growth is now modeled at 17.07% compared with 17.06% previously.
Net profit margin is refined to 37.78%, compared with 37.79% previously.
Future P/E is updated to 27.70x from 27.61x.
The discount rate is set at 8.68%, compared with 8.60% previously.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives connect Microsoft's business story to a set of financial assumptions and a fair value estimate so you can see how the numbers line up with the AI and cloud thesis. They update as new earnings, product news and research come through, keeping the Microsoft story current.
How Microsoft's AI stack across Azure AI, Copilot, Dynamics 365, GitHub and Fabric is being used to drive new revenue streams and higher usage intensity.
The role of the US$368b commercial backlog, subscription businesses like Microsoft 365 and Game Pass, and integrated security offerings in shaping recurring, high margin revenue.
Key risks such as heavy AI infrastructure capex, reliance on large AI and hyperscale customers, pressure on margins and execution challenges tied to delivering on a large global backlog.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Micron Technology Inc_ logo on building-by vzphotos vis iStock
Micron Technology (MU) stock is now close to fair value, as analysts have been raising their revenue forecasts and price targets. One of the best plays now is to sell short out-of-the-money puts, given their very high premiums. For example, short 2 weeks out MU puts with 5% below today's price yield 7.0%.
MU closed down 1.4% on Friday, June 12, at $981.61. That's off its recent peak of $1,079.57 on June 3, but could be the quiet before the storm. Micron is expected to release its fiscal earnings on June 24.
I discussed Micron's fair value in two recent Barchart articles, including this one on June 5, "Has Micron Stock Peaked Here? Its Future Valuation Metric May Surprise the Market," and another on May 24, "Micron Stock is Up over 133% From Its Lows - But Is MU Still Undervalued?"
Since the last article, analysts have hiked their revenue forecasts. This allows me to reset the underlying fair value and price target for Micron stock.
New MU Stock Price Targets
In my last article, I estimated MU was worth $910.80, based on analysts' revenue forecasts of $176.41 billion for the FY ending August 2027. But now analysts have raised this estimate to $183.62 billion.
As a result, using a 29% FCF margin assumption, as last time and slightly over its first half FY 2026 margin of 28.83%, FCF could rise to:
$183.62b x 0.29 = $53.25 billion FCF for FY 27
Then, using a 5.0% FCF yield metric, Micron's fair market value (FMV) would be:
$53.25 billion / 0.05 = $1,065 billion FMV
That is only 3.78% below its present market cap of $1,107 billion, as calculated by Yahoo! Finance. Therefore, my revised price target (PT) is $944.31 per share, i.e., 96.2% of Friday's close:
$981.62 x .0962 = $944.31 p/sh PT
That is up 3.7% from my prior PT of $910.80.
Analysts Have Significantly Raised Their PTs
Other analysts are playing catch-up with their recommendations and have significantly hiked their PTs. For example, since my last article, Yahoo! Finance's survey now shows an average PT of $828.72. That's up 12% from $739.47 a week ago on June 5.
Similarly, Barchart's mean analyst survey PT is now $872.77, up an amazing +18% from $739.34 last Friday.
Moreover, AnaChart also shows a quite dramatic hike in its average PT. AnaChart tends to cover more recent analyst write-ups than other surveys, so this could be expected.
Last week, the AnaChart average was $631.65, but this week it's $756.22. That's a one-week rise of +19.74% in analysts' average price targets.
If this keeps up, their PTs will likely rise close to today's price, as my price target.
The bottom line is that MU stock could be close to fair value here. However, all bets are off once Micron releases its Q3 earnings on June 24.
As a result, one conservative play is to sell short out-of-the-money (OTM) puts in nearby expiry periods. That way, an investor can gain extra income while waiting to set a potential lower buy-in price.
Shorting 2-Week OTM MU Puts
For example, the $935.00 strike price put option expiring June 26 shows a midpoint premium of $65.45. That strike price is 4.75% below Friday's close of $981.61, but the expiration is 2 days after its upcoming earnings release.
MU puts expiring June 26 - Barchart - As of June 12
However, for the next two weeks, that provides an investor with two benefits. First, the 2-week short-put yield play is very high:
$65.45 / $935.00 = 0.070 = 7% yield for 2 weeks
That is an extremely attractive yield. It's the same as buying MU stock and seeing it rise to $1,050.32 per share (i.e., $981.61 x 1.07).
Second, it allows an investor to have a potentially lower buy-in point. That assumes MU falls to MU or lower by June 26:
That is an attractive potential buy-in point for value investors, especially compared to my higher PT. For example, my $944.31 PT is 8.6% over this lower breakeven point.
The bottom line is that shorting OTM MU put options over the next 2 weeks is an attractive way to play MU.
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake, CFA did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
