Latest: Iran Deal & Oil Markets
...a signed MOU and the resumption of Hormuz flows pushed oil prices down and took the market's mind off a hawkish Fed... 'broadening out' trade stalls.
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Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports..."
...the first hyperscaler to signal that it can slow the pace of spending will likely see its share price rewarded...
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"Habitual drunkard" laws?
US-based Helion Energy has received the clearances to start building its fusion reactor for the world's first fusion power plant.
The durability of the semiconductor stock rally will be tested by a new era of traders bracing for multiple interest-rate hikes under a Kevin Warsh Fed...
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Adam Taggart to host Mark Newton (bull) and Jonathan Krinsky (bear) to predict where markets land at the start of 2027…
...Powell supports, Warsh abstains.
...many people are upset about large corporations, politics, the wealth disparity, or "climate change"...
Asia, which felt the supply shock first and the most as early as in March, could now see a wave of much-delayed crude supply that would weigh on prices...
SpaceX is preparing to hold calls with investors as soon as next week to discuss a potential bond offering which will be at least $20 billion, and add to the already overheating IG bond calendar.
US equities are losing a short-term stabilizer just as traders reassess the Fed’s outlook...
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Finally.
The money will go to various programs, including a suicide hotline.
Amazon is in talks to sell its custom-made Trainium AI chips for use in other companies’ data centers, in a "key expansion of its efforts to cut into Nvidia's dominance"
The market is set to absorb the largest options expiration in history, significant quarter-end pension rebalancing flows, and a broad reset in positioning across major investor cohorts...
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Although half of the forecasting participants now expects to hike before the end of the year, it was only three months ago – and after the outbreak of the war – that the median participant still expected one cut in 2026
Preliminary ceasefire includes $300 billion private fund as some Saudi tankers resume crossing the Strait of Hormuz...
Excess liquidity (real money growth versus economic growth) is now negative and falling for the first time since 2021...
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TME
The dollar is strengthening, bond volatility is collapsing and AI remains the market's favorite theme. Yet beneath the surface, unusual divergences are piling up: bond vol traders aren't buying the inflation scare, semis have become the most crowded trade on the planet, and historical analogs suggest the next move may not be as smooth as investors expect.
Emerging markets are no longer a commodity and currency story. EEM has quietly transformed into an Asian AI trade dominated by semiconductors, mega-cap tech and volatility dynamics that look more like Korea than traditional EM—and that transformation is reshaping both performance and market behavior.
Korea's AI frenzy is creating one of the most extreme market structure setups in the world. Leveraged ETFs have exploded, options markets are pricing extraordinary moves and dealer hedging flows have become large enough to influence the underlying market itself, leaving a spectacular rally increasingly dependent on leverage, volatility and mechanical feedback loops.
Gold may be one catalyst away from exploding higher. Weak hands have been flushed out, CTA models remain short, investors are aggressively bidding for downside protection and upside exposure has rarely looked this cheap, leaving gold coiled between key technical levels with the ingredients for a violent breakout move falling into place.
The risk-on machine keeps rolling. Semiconductors are ripping, hedge funds remain all-in on AI, tech volatility is behaving in ways we rarely see, and the 1997 analogy continues to track with uncanny precision. Whether this is the start of something bigger or simply another squeeze, risk appetite remains remarkably resilient.
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