Why Seiya Suzuki is a key to unlocking the rest of this Cubs season

What if Seiya Suzuki caught the ball?

Maybe the Chicago Cubs hang on to beat the Atlanta Braves that September night, giving them their 83rd win of the 2023 campaign with five games remaining. The final weekend of that regular season featured the Cubs against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that would have little to play for with its division title already clinched and home-field advantage secured for its opening playoff series.

While a late-season collapse left the Cubs with an 83-79 record, the last two entrants in the National League’s postseason field included two 84-win clubs, including the Arizona Diamondbacks, who would make it all the way to the World Series.

Even if the Cubs couldn’t conjure that kind of October magic, a postseason appearance might have boosted the next year’s budget for baseball operations, opening different possibilities for trades and free agents. Making the playoffs would have made it virtually impossible for Cubs president Jed Hoyer to fire manager David Ross, eliminating an option for Craig Counsell when his contract with the Brewers expired.

Losing that ball in the Truist Park lights dented Suzuki’s confidence and reputation as a defender. History always shadows the Cubs, a franchise now marking its 150th anniversary. A split-second mistake by the Japanese outfielder on Sept. 26, 2023, instantly recalled Ron Santo’s pained reaction on WGN Radio when Brant Brown dropped a fly ball on Sept. 23, 1998, in Milwaukee: “Oh no!”

Fast forward to Sunday, when Ross will be in ABC’s broadcast booth at Oracle Park while Counsell will try to outmaneuver the San Francisco Giants and get Chicago’s season back on track. Suzuki remains in the picture, still striving to be part of “The Next Great Cubs Team.”

“I know that in the past I’ve lost the trust of people with my defense,” Suzuki said through an interpreter. “I want my teammates to trust me.”

Suzuki has earned that trust, but he exited Saturday’s 6-1 win over the Giants in the fourth inning due to right knee discomfort after trying to make a difficult running catch in right field. That issue will have to be monitored as Suzuki started this season on the injured list after spraining his right knee during the World Baseball Classic.

As the manager during a Wrigley Field rebuild, Ross played an integral role in recruiting Suzuki, who was regarded as a plus defender when he left Nippon Professional Baseball after the 2021 season. The organization’s evaluation of Suzuki as a dynamic, well-rounded player led to a five-year commitment valued at nearly $100 million, including the posting fee owed to his Japanese club.

Although his offensive production has been spotty at times and hampered by injuries, Suzuki has demonstrated an ability to carry the offense. The dollars metric on FanGraphs has already assessed his overall contributions as a Cub at more than $99 million.

“Dude had 30 homers and 100 RBIs last year,” Cubs outfielder Ian Happ said. Actually, it was 35 home runs and 108 RBIs, including the playoffs, but the point still stands. “He’s one of the best hitters in baseball.”

As they crashed back to .500 last week after their 27-12 start to the season, the Cubs clearly missed Suzuki’s offensive presence.

It’s never about just one player when a team collectively struggles to this extent, but Suzuki might have been Chicago’s most dangerous hitter last October. His OPS this season — which had been .980 when the Cubs posted their second 10-game winning streak — dropped 269 points by the end of their first game in June.

“Sometimes, you get matchups, you get weeks, where things aren’t rolling,” Happ said. “Everybody goes through that. But I have all the faith in the world that at the end of the year, his baseball card’s going to look a lot like it has for the last four seasons, which is really, really good performance from a middle-of-the-lineup bat.”

It looks like Suzuki might be starting to turn it around after a grand slam in Thursday’s 9-3 road win over the Colorado Rockies and two doubles in Friday’s 5-1 win over the Giants. The Cubs had not won back-to-back games since May 27-28, fueling speculation about the remote possibility that Hoyer’s front office could become sellers at the trade deadline.

So much will happen between now and Aug. 3, and Suzuki has a full no-trade clause that would give him some control over the process if the Cubs wind up drifting in that direction. An upcoming free agent, though, would likely be more open to a trade that would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer, which can hinder a player’s options.

Suzuki is also so talented that it becomes very difficult to envision the Cubs trading away one of their best hitters if they remain in the playoff race. And if Suzuki gets on another hot streak, he’s shown an ability to elevate the entire team.

Even his much-scrutinized defense more than passes the eye test. Counsell — who used to point out that they don’t teach major-league outfielders how to catch a fly ball — and Suzuki agree that he’s playing his best defense in a Cubs uniform.

The advanced metrics confirm that scouting report. Before this season, Suzuki was a negative in two of his four seasons by Defensive Runs Saved, a negative in three seasons by Outs Above Average and a negative in all four by Fielding Runs Value. He’s easily having career years in each metric this season, with FRV having him tied for third among corner outfielders with strong defenders such as Cody Bellinger and Wilyer Abreu.

“I haven’t been hitting well, so my focus has been if I can’t hit to help the team, at least I need to be good on defense,” Suzuki said. “I was able to turn the switch on there. My body has been feeling really good out there. The defense has been feeling really good.”

Suzuki showed off his arm recently in St. Louis, cutting off a runner at third with a one-hop dart from deep right field. He’s also displaying impressive range, running down balls that normally would have dropped.

“It continues,” Counsell said recently after another strong defensive game from Suzuki. “Getting good jumps on balls. His defense has definitely been a step up, no question about it. It’s been important to him to take that step, and he really has.”

Statcast has a metric named “Jump” that has three categories: reaction, burst and route. Suzuki is a positive in all three categories, and he’s fourth in baseball with a Jump of 3.8 feet above average.

Entering the season, there were legitimate questions about Suzuki taking over in right field again. He’d lost the job to Bellinger late in the 2024 season and then worked primarily as a designated hitter in 2025 while Kyle Tucker manned the spot. Instead of being the weak link, Suzuki has emerged as one of the standouts for a team that’s seen as the best defensive group in baseball.

“I know, more than anyone, that if you do make a mistake out there, you can lose trust,” Suzuki said. “I’m glad that I can separate the hitting side from the defense and go out there on the field and play well defensively. Hopefully, I can carry that on for the rest of the season.”