Alex Tuch wants eight figures. That pursuit has been the story all season and it’s one of the first stark examples of the evolving salary landscape as the NHL’s salary cap enters an explosive growth phase. The natural question that’s spawned from that: is he worth it?
A quick look through the current crop of players making $10 million at the start of the 2025-26 season led to a very quick and pointed no. There still weren’t many of them last season and the group that does hit the mark remain pretty special — the best of the best. Sure, many are legacy contracts, but even recent deals suggest the type of player this type of money is still reserved for. If Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen are getting $12 million, is Tuch really only $2 million worse? He’s just simply not on that level. Frankly, he isn’t even close.
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Then the Adrian Kempe deal happened. $10.6 million for the next eight years for a guy who is absolutely on the same level as Tuch. And that’s where things get interesting.
Suddenly Tuch has a very valid argument to make $10 million in the current NHL market. Combine that with Tuch having been severely underpaid for the last seven years and it makes sense why he would shoot for the stars on his next deal. He’s earned that right, and AFP Analytics projects he’ll likely get his wish with a forecast of $10.1 million per year on a seven-year deal.
Whether a team will pay Tuch $10 million and whether a team should are completely different considerations, though, both of which depend on the team in question.
The teams that can probably afford to give Tuch that deal are also unlikely to be teams that can extract $10 million of value out of Tuch; they’d be paying him to be a driver when he’s probably more of an elite sidekick. On the other hand, the teams that can extract $10 million of value out of Tuch by slotting him appropriately (Edmonton comes to mind here) probably don’t have the space to fit what would be a luxury deal. Finding the equilibrium between those two thoughts for the perfect fit isn’t easy.
NHL teams will have more cap space than ever before, giving them even more room to make an overpayment when it comes to Tuch (and every other free agent). With the cap going up even further next year, mistakes won’t get crunched like they did in the flat-cap era either. Still, a weak crop of free agents and a lot of potential money left over mean the gravity of any potential mistake could be massive.
And just because teams can doesn’t mean they should. Talent acquisition is going to become a much bigger priority than cap efficiency in a cap growth era, but it’s the teams strongest on the books that will be able to take advantage of that most. Just because there’s more money to play with doesn’t mean team-building via UFA will suddenly become a sound strategy. If a team is paying Tuch to be its No. 2 forward, it is going to be in trouble.
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The other problem is age. Tuch just turned 30 and hopefully by now you don’t need me to tell you his best years are likely behind him. Anyone who signs Tuch is paying a premium for past performance.
When people say “don’t worry, the cap is going up,” they often forget “the age curve points down.” And it’s not at the same velocity, not for a player that just turned 30; the age curve usually drops faster than the cap can keep up with. In Tuch’s case, he’s pretty close to a $9 million player right now and it’s an easy sell to overpay him by a million bucks to secure his services for next year. He’s a team’s best chance at acquiring a true top-line difference-maker.
But in four or five years the math starts changing, and the end probably won’t be pretty. Right now, $10 million is the cost for a strong top-line forward, and at some point over the next seven years that will change to the cost of a strong second-line forward. Tuch’s potential drop to that level — and lower — likely comes much faster than the cap grows.
Limit Tuch to a four-year deal and it’s all good. Limit Tuch to $9 million and that’s an easy pill to swallow too. But max term and max price is a bit tougher to stomach at what AFP is projecting. (And for those wondering, the total amount of UFA dollars they’re projecting is roughly equal to what I’m projecting for the same players; it’s not the model underselling this year’s UFA crop).
None of this is to say anything about Tuch the player as he currently is.
It’s very difficult to find a player who combines size, skill and speed as well as Tuch does and it shows up extremely well in his five-on-five results. Tuch is capable of being a 35-goal and 65-point player without the benefit of heavy power-play usage and ranks 17th in points per 60 over the last three seasons. His relative impact on goals and expected goals is routinely strong and last year he posted a plus-10.3 Net Rating. That’s right in line with a $10 million valuation if he can keep up that level.
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It’s just his age that suggests it’s not a safe bet at that price. At that price you’d better be sure.
Tuch’s comp list speaks to all of that as clearly as possible with four wingers who immediately stand out: Rick Nash in 2013-14, Jamie Benn in 2018-19, Anders Lee in 2019-20 and James Neal in 2016-17. At the time, all four seemed unimpeachable as big and effective top-line forwards fitting a similar archetype to Tuch. All four lost their luster at varying rates. Nash only played four more seasons, Benn went on a steady annual decline, Lee’s decline was slower but still noticeable, and Neal fell off completely in only his second season after.
For certain teams, Tuch will be very worth it. Given Buffalo’s internal options at wing, I’m not convinced it’s the right risk for the Sabres. Finding a team where Tuch makes sense at this price — win-now, ample cap space, five-on-five need — might be tricky. With a lot of money out there, it’s very easy to see Tuch going to the wrong team.
For the right team, Tuch would be a fantastic add in the short term, even at a small overpay. For the wrong team, at a bigger overpay, Tuch’s age and comp profile make him one of the riskier bets when free agency opens.
