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Where Did the Billions Go? Tracing the Wealth After the U.S. Seized Venezuela's Oil

Where Did the Billions Go? Tracing the Wealth After the U.S. Seized Venezuela's Oil

US Launches New Strikes on Iran Following Trump's Denial of Strait of Hormuz Deal

US Launches New Strikes on Iran Following Trump's Denial of Strait of Hormuz Deal

Facing Labor Shortages in East Asia: Productivity Governance in the Age of AI

Facing Labor Shortages in East Asia: Productivity Governance in the Age of AI

News

Where Did the Billions Go? Tracing the Wealth After the U.S. Seized Venezuela's Oil

The American and Venezuelan people remain in the dark about how the Trump administration is controlling billions of dollars of Venezuelan oil revenue. Without accountability mechanisms or a clear democratic roadmap, the United States risks entrenching a corrupt successor regime.

Where Did the Billions Go? Tracing the Wealth After the U.S. Seized Venezuela's Oil

US Launches New Strikes on Iran Following Trump's Denial of Strait of Hormuz Deal

ASHINGTON: The US military carried out new strikes targeting an Iranian drone operation that posed a threat to US forces and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a US official said, hours after President Donald Trump dismissed an Iranian report of a deal to restore traffic through the strategic waterway. The US official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about military operations, told Reuters on Wednesday (May 27) the military shot down four Iranian attack drones and struck a ground control station in the port city of Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone. A ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect in early April.

US Launches New Strikes on Iran Following Trump's Denial of Strait of Hormuz Deal

Facing Labor Shortages in East Asia: Productivity Governance in the Age of AI

The debate over AI and work too often centers on displacement. Facing aging populations and shrinking workforces, East Asian policymakers view AI not as a threat, but as a cross-sectoral workforce strategy.

Facing Labor Shortages in East Asia: Productivity Governance in the Age of AI

Xi and Trump Open High-Stakes Summit in Beijing

Top of the Agenda Trump and Xi hailed the potential for a positive turn in relations during talks in Beijing today—though each side emphasized different points afterward. Xi said Taiwan is the most important issue in bilateral relations and could lead to conflict if mishandled, according to China's foreign ministry. The White House readout did not mention Taiwan, but instead emphasized cooperation on trade and ending the Iran war. Xi said the two countries should be “partners, not adversaries,” while Trump called the talks “extremely positive and productive.” 

Xi and Trump Open High-Stakes Summit in Beijing

Precision Dialogue, Peak Pressure: A Strategic Framework for AI Talks with China

At the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, Beijing will not negotiate in good faith on AI safety. A narrowly scoped dialogue paired with maximum pressure on export controls is the only way to shift Beijing's calculus and secure long-term AI safety. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping plan to discuss issues related to artificial intelligence (AI) when they meet in Beijing—as they should. AI is increasingly underpinning global economic growth, driving technological innovation, and reshaping world battlefields. Modern AI models are the most powerful cybersecurity and hacking weapons that have ever been created, and they are doubling in capability every four months. AI is simply too important to ignore.  The United States and China are reportedly considering establishing a dialogue on AI safety. The Chinese government has long sought such a dialogue, but the unfortunate reality is the Chinese government's willingness to make and abide by robust international commitments on AI safety is low. It views these dialogues as an opportunity to increase its access to technology that China needs to catch up to the United States in AI. If the United States and China do establish a regular AI dialogue, the only effective way to change the Chinese government's calculus is to ensure it is exclusively focused on safety and to couple it with a “maximum pressure” campaign that tightens export controls and expands the U.S. lead in AI as much as possible.

Precision Dialogue, Peak Pressure: A Strategic Framework for AI Talks with China

From Cyber Defense to Operational Resilience: Why CISA Is Prioritizing Isolation and Recovery

CISA's recently launched “CI Fortify” initiative places particular emphasis on two concepts — isolation and recovery. The framework reflects growing concern in Washington that future cyber campaigns targeting critical infrastructure will be designed not simply to steal information, but to undermine the operational continuity of energy systems, communications networks, transportation, water utilities, and other essential sectors during periods of geopolitical confrontation. According to CISA, critical infrastructure operators must be capable of sustaining operations even in scenarios where external connectivity becomes unreliable or unavailable. The guidance assumes that internet access, cloud services, and third-party providers may be disrupted simultaneously, while adversaries may already have established persistent access inside operational environments. In such circumstances, organizations cannot depend solely on perimeter defense or centralized digital ecosystems. They must be prepared to operate independently under degraded conditions. This reflects a broader transformation in the threat landscape. Over the past several years, U.S. officials have repeatedly warned about state-sponsored cyber groups conducting long-term pre-positioning activities inside critical infrastructure networks. Campaigns linked to groups such as Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon have reinforced concerns that attackers are increasingly targeting operational technology (OT) environments rather than conventional enterprise IT systems. The objective is no longer limited to espionage; it is increasingly tied to the potential disruption of physical infrastructure and public services. Against this backdrop, CISA's focus on “isolation” should not be interpreted as a simple recommendation to disconnect systems from the internet. Instead, the concept refers to the ability of organizations to preserve core operational functions even when separated from external networks or digital dependencies. This requires infrastructure operators to rethink longstanding assumptions about connectivity, trust relationships, and automation. For many organizations, industrial environments were historically designed around availability and efficiency rather than resilience under hostile conditions. Operational networks often evolved with extensive third-party integration, remote access dependencies, and limited segmentation between IT and OT systems. CISA's guidance suggests that this model is no longer sustainable in an era of persistent geopolitical cyber competition.

From Cyber Defense to Operational Resilience: Why CISA Is Prioritizing Isolation and Recovery

Bottom-Line Diplomacy: Three Nuclear Security Lessons from the Iran Conflict

Diplomats have gathered in New York to review the future of the global nonproliferation regime, while Washington and Tehran develop terms for a potential future meeting in Islamabad. The Iran war has surfaced three initial nuclear security lessons that should shape the deals negotiators aim to reach. U.S. President Donald Trump was unequivocal last month when asked whether the United States would use a nuclear weapon against Iran: “A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody,” he said. That statement, striking in its restraint from a president who had threatened Iran with civilization-ending force, coincidentally came just before diplomats from 191 countries gathered in New York City to review the future of a treaty that has largely kept nuclear weapons from proliferating for more than 50 years. In New York, for the eleventh time, representatives of the states party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) are reviewing the agreement's fundamental bargain: few countries can possess nuclear weapons, but many can benefit from nuclear science and energy. Iran has tested the international nonproliferation system for decades as it sought and enriched nuclear materials. The U.S. president's predecessors, sometimes with the other UN Security Council permanent five members (P5), slowed or curtailed Iran's activities through negotiated inspections, export controls, sanctions, and even a sophisticated cyberattack on their enrichment facilities. But Trump's seven-week war with Iran, and its unsteady ceasefire, has pursued another path to counter proliferation: military force.

Bottom-Line Diplomacy: Three Nuclear Security Lessons from the Iran Conflict

The AI Cold War Intensifies with the Arrival of DeepSeek V4

The latest Chinese model trails U.S. competitors on benchmarks. But it may not have to win the performance race to reshape the geopolitics of artificial intelligence. Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek released a version of its long-awaited V4 large language model on Friday. It's the most significant update since the release of the version that rattled global tech markets more than a year ago. Like DeepSeek's previous models, V4 is open source, meaning it is available for anyone to download, use, and modify. The company claims the new model rivals leading closed-source systems from American firms—like Anthropic's Claude, OpenAI's ChatGPT, and Google's Gemini—on major benchmarks, while outperforming its rival open-source models. The release has again trained attention on the intensifying U.S.-China AI competition. Adding to the tension, the White House's science and technology office has accused foreign entities—primarily Chinese ones—of conducting large-scale efforts to extract knowledge from U.S. frontier AI models, a broadside widely seen as directed at DeepSeek. Three CFR fellows assessed the new DeepSeek model and considered what it could mean for the U.S.-Chinese AI race.

The AI Cold War Intensifies with the Arrival of DeepSeek V4

Inside Kevin Warsh's Hearing: Mapping the Next Era of Federal Reserve Policy

Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing revealed a nominee who aims to narrow the Fed's mandate, overhaul its inflation framework, and reduce its reliance on unconventional tools. But first he will have to navigate the political pressures that have cast a shadow over his path to the Senate Banking Committee. Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors and President Donald Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing on Tuesday. The hearing was dominated in large part by questions about Fed independence and the politics surrounding his nomination. By the hearing's conclusion, a clearer picture had emerged of what a Federal Reserve under Warsh might look like. If confirmed, his priorities would appear to be a return to the Fed's core mandate, a stricter approach to inflation targeting, and a reduced reliance on quantitative easing and forward guidance. Warsh's path to confirmation, however, remains uncertain. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina announced he would block Warsh's confirmation vote until the Department of Justice drops its investigation into Powell and the ongoing renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters.

Inside Kevin Warsh's Hearing: Mapping the Next Era of Federal Reserve Policy

Beyond the Strait: How China's Green Energy Grid Bypasses the Hormuz Chokepoint

No matter the outcome of the conflict between the United States and Iran, China will be better off in the postwar world order due to its global leadership not only in renewable energy and batteries, but also electrical infrastructure and energy innovation. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has thrown many nations dependent on Middle East oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) into crisis. Beyond immediate measures to reduce energy consumption, the Iran war is now causing these countries to accelerate longer-term plans to build out solar and wind power, install batteries to balance their grids, and expand the role of electric vehicles (EVs). China is the clear winner. The country dominates all three industries and was already promoting them aggressively in export markets before the war. But this major advantage is only part of the postwar story. Beijing is also winning in other manufacturing sectors and electrical infrastructure writ large, and it is positioning itself to win the next generation of energy technologies. China's progress may be good for the global climate, but as each day of hostilities passes and energy demands grow, it deepens the United States' long-run geoeconomic challenge.

Beyond the Strait: How China's Green Energy Grid Bypasses the Hormuz Chokepoint

Research Reports

Where Did the Billions Go? Tracing the Wealth After the U.S. Seized Venezuela's Oil

The American and Venezuelan people remain in the dark about how the Trump administration is controlling billions of dollars of Venezuelan oil revenue. Without accountability mechanisms or a clear democratic roadmap, the United States risks entrenching a corrupt successor regime.

Where Did the Billions Go? Tracing the Wealth After the U.S. Seized Venezuela's Oil

US Launches New Strikes on Iran Following Trump's Denial of Strait of Hormuz Deal

ASHINGTON: The US military carried out new strikes targeting an Iranian drone operation that posed a threat to US forces and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a US official said, hours after President Donald Trump dismissed an Iranian report of a deal to restore traffic through the strategic waterway. The US official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about military operations, told Reuters on Wednesday (May 27) the military shot down four Iranian attack drones and struck a ground control station in the port city of Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone. A ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect in early April.

US Launches New Strikes on Iran Following Trump's Denial of Strait of Hormuz Deal

Facing Labor Shortages in East Asia: Productivity Governance in the Age of AI

The debate over AI and work too often centers on displacement. Facing aging populations and shrinking workforces, East Asian policymakers view AI not as a threat, but as a cross-sectoral workforce strategy.

Facing Labor Shortages in East Asia: Productivity Governance in the Age of AI

Xi and Trump Open High-Stakes Summit in Beijing

Top of the Agenda Trump and Xi hailed the potential for a positive turn in relations during talks in Beijing today—though each side emphasized different points afterward. Xi said Taiwan is the most important issue in bilateral relations and could lead to conflict if mishandled, according to China's foreign ministry. The White House readout did not mention Taiwan, but instead emphasized cooperation on trade and ending the Iran war. Xi said the two countries should be “partners, not adversaries,” while Trump called the talks “extremely positive and productive.” 

Xi and Trump Open High-Stakes Summit in Beijing

Precision Dialogue, Peak Pressure: A Strategic Framework for AI Talks with China

At the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, Beijing will not negotiate in good faith on AI safety. A narrowly scoped dialogue paired with maximum pressure on export controls is the only way to shift Beijing's calculus and secure long-term AI safety. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping plan to discuss issues related to artificial intelligence (AI) when they meet in Beijing—as they should. AI is increasingly underpinning global economic growth, driving technological innovation, and reshaping world battlefields. Modern AI models are the most powerful cybersecurity and hacking weapons that have ever been created, and they are doubling in capability every four months. AI is simply too important to ignore.  The United States and China are reportedly considering establishing a dialogue on AI safety. The Chinese government has long sought such a dialogue, but the unfortunate reality is the Chinese government's willingness to make and abide by robust international commitments on AI safety is low. It views these dialogues as an opportunity to increase its access to technology that China needs to catch up to the United States in AI. If the United States and China do establish a regular AI dialogue, the only effective way to change the Chinese government's calculus is to ensure it is exclusively focused on safety and to couple it with a “maximum pressure” campaign that tightens export controls and expands the U.S. lead in AI as much as possible.

Precision Dialogue, Peak Pressure: A Strategic Framework for AI Talks with China

From Cyber Defense to Operational Resilience: Why CISA Is Prioritizing Isolation and Recovery

CISA's recently launched “CI Fortify” initiative places particular emphasis on two concepts — isolation and recovery. The framework reflects growing concern in Washington that future cyber campaigns targeting critical infrastructure will be designed not simply to steal information, but to undermine the operational continuity of energy systems, communications networks, transportation, water utilities, and other essential sectors during periods of geopolitical confrontation. According to CISA, critical infrastructure operators must be capable of sustaining operations even in scenarios where external connectivity becomes unreliable or unavailable. The guidance assumes that internet access, cloud services, and third-party providers may be disrupted simultaneously, while adversaries may already have established persistent access inside operational environments. In such circumstances, organizations cannot depend solely on perimeter defense or centralized digital ecosystems. They must be prepared to operate independently under degraded conditions. This reflects a broader transformation in the threat landscape. Over the past several years, U.S. officials have repeatedly warned about state-sponsored cyber groups conducting long-term pre-positioning activities inside critical infrastructure networks. Campaigns linked to groups such as Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon have reinforced concerns that attackers are increasingly targeting operational technology (OT) environments rather than conventional enterprise IT systems. The objective is no longer limited to espionage; it is increasingly tied to the potential disruption of physical infrastructure and public services. Against this backdrop, CISA's focus on “isolation” should not be interpreted as a simple recommendation to disconnect systems from the internet. Instead, the concept refers to the ability of organizations to preserve core operational functions even when separated from external networks or digital dependencies. This requires infrastructure operators to rethink longstanding assumptions about connectivity, trust relationships, and automation. For many organizations, industrial environments were historically designed around availability and efficiency rather than resilience under hostile conditions. Operational networks often evolved with extensive third-party integration, remote access dependencies, and limited segmentation between IT and OT systems. CISA's guidance suggests that this model is no longer sustainable in an era of persistent geopolitical cyber competition.

From Cyber Defense to Operational Resilience: Why CISA Is Prioritizing Isolation and Recovery

Bottom-Line Diplomacy: Three Nuclear Security Lessons from the Iran Conflict

Diplomats have gathered in New York to review the future of the global nonproliferation regime, while Washington and Tehran develop terms for a potential future meeting in Islamabad. The Iran war has surfaced three initial nuclear security lessons that should shape the deals negotiators aim to reach. U.S. President Donald Trump was unequivocal last month when asked whether the United States would use a nuclear weapon against Iran: “A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody,” he said. That statement, striking in its restraint from a president who had threatened Iran with civilization-ending force, coincidentally came just before diplomats from 191 countries gathered in New York City to review the future of a treaty that has largely kept nuclear weapons from proliferating for more than 50 years. In New York, for the eleventh time, representatives of the states party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) are reviewing the agreement's fundamental bargain: few countries can possess nuclear weapons, but many can benefit from nuclear science and energy. Iran has tested the international nonproliferation system for decades as it sought and enriched nuclear materials. The U.S. president's predecessors, sometimes with the other UN Security Council permanent five members (P5), slowed or curtailed Iran's activities through negotiated inspections, export controls, sanctions, and even a sophisticated cyberattack on their enrichment facilities. But Trump's seven-week war with Iran, and its unsteady ceasefire, has pursued another path to counter proliferation: military force.

Bottom-Line Diplomacy: Three Nuclear Security Lessons from the Iran Conflict

The AI Cold War Intensifies with the Arrival of DeepSeek V4

The latest Chinese model trails U.S. competitors on benchmarks. But it may not have to win the performance race to reshape the geopolitics of artificial intelligence. Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek released a version of its long-awaited V4 large language model on Friday. It's the most significant update since the release of the version that rattled global tech markets more than a year ago. Like DeepSeek's previous models, V4 is open source, meaning it is available for anyone to download, use, and modify. The company claims the new model rivals leading closed-source systems from American firms—like Anthropic's Claude, OpenAI's ChatGPT, and Google's Gemini—on major benchmarks, while outperforming its rival open-source models. The release has again trained attention on the intensifying U.S.-China AI competition. Adding to the tension, the White House's science and technology office has accused foreign entities—primarily Chinese ones—of conducting large-scale efforts to extract knowledge from U.S. frontier AI models, a broadside widely seen as directed at DeepSeek. Three CFR fellows assessed the new DeepSeek model and considered what it could mean for the U.S.-Chinese AI race.

The AI Cold War Intensifies with the Arrival of DeepSeek V4

Inside Kevin Warsh's Hearing: Mapping the Next Era of Federal Reserve Policy

Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing revealed a nominee who aims to narrow the Fed's mandate, overhaul its inflation framework, and reduce its reliance on unconventional tools. But first he will have to navigate the political pressures that have cast a shadow over his path to the Senate Banking Committee. Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors and President Donald Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing on Tuesday. The hearing was dominated in large part by questions about Fed independence and the politics surrounding his nomination. By the hearing's conclusion, a clearer picture had emerged of what a Federal Reserve under Warsh might look like. If confirmed, his priorities would appear to be a return to the Fed's core mandate, a stricter approach to inflation targeting, and a reduced reliance on quantitative easing and forward guidance. Warsh's path to confirmation, however, remains uncertain. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina announced he would block Warsh's confirmation vote until the Department of Justice drops its investigation into Powell and the ongoing renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters.

Inside Kevin Warsh's Hearing: Mapping the Next Era of Federal Reserve Policy

Beyond the Strait: How China's Green Energy Grid Bypasses the Hormuz Chokepoint

No matter the outcome of the conflict between the United States and Iran, China will be better off in the postwar world order due to its global leadership not only in renewable energy and batteries, but also electrical infrastructure and energy innovation. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has thrown many nations dependent on Middle East oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) into crisis. Beyond immediate measures to reduce energy consumption, the Iran war is now causing these countries to accelerate longer-term plans to build out solar and wind power, install batteries to balance their grids, and expand the role of electric vehicles (EVs). China is the clear winner. The country dominates all three industries and was already promoting them aggressively in export markets before the war. But this major advantage is only part of the postwar story. Beijing is also winning in other manufacturing sectors and electrical infrastructure writ large, and it is positioning itself to win the next generation of energy technologies. China's progress may be good for the global climate, but as each day of hostilities passes and energy demands grow, it deepens the United States' long-run geoeconomic challenge.

Beyond the Strait: How China's Green Energy Grid Bypasses the Hormuz Chokepoint