Latest: How F***ed Are Markets?
According to Goldman, "this is an early-cycle opportunity to position ahead of a multi-year capital rotation into the robotics ecosystem." Here's what you need to know.
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Rush asked for, and received, “a significant quantity of foreign currency and tens of millions of dollars in gold bars for work-related expenses.” FBI agents searched Rush’s home and found 303 gold bars...
CENTCOM on overnight escalation: ballistic missile was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces.
TME
The United Kingdom introduced new sanctions targeting Russian financial networks using crypto and offshore channels to evade post-Ukraine invasion restrictions...
Unusual Machines soaring 33%, Red Cat up 13%, AeroVironment up 8%...
“Many borrowers understandably backed away from refinancing last week...”
What is unfolding across parts of Europe should serve as a warning to every Western democracy wrestling with questions of immigration, national identity, social cohesion, and the limits of political tolerance.
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NS
"The prevailing dynamic has been 'buy the rumor and buy the news', with momentum building..."
The US will primarily provide a nuclear deterrent but many conventional assets to be stripped...
...a growing number of younger employees say they would rather skip alcohol-focused work socials altogether.
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Travel abroad could soon become a luxury for many. Not only high kerosene prices are making air tickets more expensive, but the EU also plans to extend its climate levy to international air travel. Travel while you still can.
It appears that peace is not breaking out.
In her acceptance speech, Merkel called for expanded regulation (censorship) of social media in order to "save democracy"...
NS
"I console myself with the thought that all this virtuous bluster is altruistic in origin, shining a light on overlooked issues..."
A new dynamic has emerged in the AI thesis that deserves serious consideration...
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The AI melt-up is showing the first signs of stress today, with semis rolling over aggressively and SOXL printing massive downside candles after one of the most vertical squeezes in years. When positioning, leverage, and complacency all reach extremes simultaneously, markets can suddenly become far more fragile than they appear on the surface.
Korean equities are increasingly starting to trade like a reflexive AI leverage machine, with semis crowding, retail leverage, structured products, and crypto-native perpetual futures all feeding the same upside squeeze dynamic. The problem with reflexive melt-ups is that they often look strongest right before momentum finally starts exhausting itself.
Semis are back in full squeeze mode, with every dip getting aggressively bought as leverage and upside positioning keep amplifying the AI melt-up. The remarkable part is that upside volatility remains extremely well bid while downside fear keeps collapsing, even as parts of the setup are starting to look increasingly stretched.
We turned bullish on Software a few weeks ago, and that bounce has already delivered. But with IGV now threatening a breakout above the key $94/$95 area and positioning still extremely bearish, the squeeze may only be getting started. Here is a 5-chart recap on how gloomy sentiment remains in software.
Asset managers aggressively sold the latest downtick in equities and semis just as rates volatility started spiking again. The problem? The AI melt-up machine simply refused to care, with semis quickly squeezing back toward fresh highs as the semis chase becomes impossible to ignore.
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