Latest: How F***ed Are Markets?
The capex "benefit" from AI is largely asymmetric: the trillions in projected spending will do little to boost US GDP as most of the underlying equipment is imported, however a sharp reversal will likely lead to GDP busting recession.
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...while Rubio signals optimism on peace deal in 'days'.
The correlation of SPX vs pretty much every other macro asset has broken down...
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Space will not be settled by treaties and committees, but by pioneers willing to claim, build, and risk everything on worlds no one owns...
The Trump administration is expected to deploy US public health officers to Kenya to staff a potential quarantine facility there amid the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, in a departure from procedure used during previous outbreaks of the virus
Trump endorsement seals the deal...
A few weeks after Combs' post, the city itself issued a notice urging residents to boil their water to "avoid harmful bacteria..."
Trump suggested the arms package could be used as a "negotiating chip" with China.
The US may have a better use for plutonium besides just burying it in the ground.
...use public monies to single out 49% of the population as constituting a lurking threat to each and every member of the other 51% of the population,
29 Chinese aircraft, including fighter jets & 7 warships operating around the island...
Never once do they stop & ask whether the thing they're selling is bullshit...
The household Real-Time Population Survey shows slow and steady growth through February, while the similarly worded survey of Hartley et al. shows a consistent decline in use starting last summer through March.
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Plus in another 44 bigger cities, condo prices dropped by 7% to 14% so far, as the mindboggling Condo Bubble comes unglued.
But over in Gaza, the IDF has taken out the leader of Hamas' Qassam Brigades...
...barren consumers can buy nothing except by the means of value created by producers...
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The headbutting between national energy security and local communities is intensifying...
New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani represents the culture war of a freshly repainted socialism like hardly any other politician... With a permanent artificial smile, the Uganda-born politician is methodically dismantling the rules of the world capital of capitalism...
"Hasan didn't refute the network. He mapped it."
Semis are back in full squeeze mode, with every dip getting aggressively bought as leverage and upside positioning keep amplifying the AI melt-up. The remarkable part is that upside volatility remains extremely well bid while downside fear keeps collapsing, even as parts of the setup are starting to look increasingly stretched.
We turned bullish on Software a few weeks ago, and that bounce has already delivered. But with IGV now threatening a breakout above the key $94/$95 area and positioning still extremely bearish, the squeeze may only be getting started. Here is a 5-chart recap on how gloomy sentiment remains in software.
Asset managers aggressively sold the latest downtick in equities and semis just as rates volatility started spiking again. The problem? The AI melt-up machine simply refused to care, with semis quickly squeezing back toward fresh highs as the semis chase becomes impossible to ignore.
With equities already trading at record highs, the instinctive reaction is that much of the good news must already be priced in. But a closer look at earnings revisions, dividends, M&A activity and liquidity trends suggests the backdrop is not just bullish — it is unusually bullish. The flip-side is that expectations are now extremely elevated, meaning even small disappointments could matter more than usual.
Tech keeps trading like a self-reinforcing melt-up machine, with every small dip getting mechanically bought as flows keep chasing AI and semis. Upside call skew across large-cap tech is now reaching meme-mania style extremes, increasingly echoing 1997 and parts of 2003.
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