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Exclusive / Thousands of journalists’ data exposed to dark web

Max Tani
Max Tani
Media Editor, Semafor
May 26, 2026, 10:29am GMT+9
Proton’s password manager
Courtesy of Proton

Swiss privacy and security company Proton and Constella Intelligence found more than 116,000 instances where employees at The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post had their data exposed to the dark web.

Across all three organizations, the company behind Proton Mail found exposure to the dark web over the past five years associated with more than 35,000 individual email addresses, according to a study conducted earlier this month. The company said that more than half of the exposures contained personal information such as names, phone numbers, dates of birth, and addresses, which cybersecurity experts say creates heightened risk for phishing and blackmail. The breaches also included thousands of passwords.

The goal of conducting the study, the organization told Semafor, was to better understand the scale of exposure journalists face as hostility towards independent journalism mounts. A spokesperson for Proton said it sent the information to the chief technology officers of all three companies to alert them of breaches. Proton also suggested that members of the media check to see if they have been exposed in previous high-profile breaches, change their passwords if so, and use a password manager.

“The reporters and their organizations are not to blame here. It’s a structural problem that affects everyone who uses the internet,” the company said in a post first shared with Semafor.

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“American journalists face growing legal and political pressure, and the security risks they

face are not purely hypothetical. Leaked passwords open doors to email accounts, internal

systems, and communication platforms where source identities could be exposed,” and the release of reporters’ personally identifiable information “creates opportunities for blackmail or targeted harassment campaigns designed to silence or discredit” them.

Spokespeople for the Times and the Journal did not respond to Semafor’s inquiry about the employee information on the dark web. A spokesperson for the Post said the paper didn’t comment on IT, but emphasized that the report did not say the Post had experienced a security breach.

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Ebola outbreak prompts scrutiny of Trump cuts

Updated May 22, 2026, 9:50pm GMT+9
Shuttered USAID offices
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

The Trump administration’s dismantling of US global health infrastructure is coming under intense scrutiny as an Ebola outbreak spreads across the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda.

The deep cuts to US Agency for International Development funding last year likely impacted the response and delayed detection of the virus, according to health experts and congressional Democrats. Some also argue President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization may have hampered the US response to the crisis.

“You can draw a straight line from the Trump administration’s dismantling of our global health infrastructure to the Ebola outbreak,” said Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., the top Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee. He added that USAID cuts “eliminated systems that could have detected the virus earlier, distributed protective equipment faster, and deployed public health workers to track exposure.”

Elizabeth Hoffman, executive director of North America at ONE Campaign, noted that US aid to the DRC plummeted from $1.4 billion in 2024 to $451 million in 2025.

“The US presence — whether it be official government employees or the presence of partners — has dramatically diminished,” she said. “Had we had that presence on the ground, it was much more likely that something would have been flagged.”

State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott countered that “funding and support to combat Ebola continue, working with allies and partners” through the new Global Health Security and Diplomacy Bureau within the department. The US announced plans to fund 50 clinics in the impacted regions, although Uganda’s health ministry said as of Wednesday it had “not been engaged” by the US on treatment centers.

Republicans defended the Trump administration, blaming the slow response to the outbreak on the region’s volatility.

“The current volatility in the region has been particularly detrimental to early efforts to identify and contain this particular outbreak,” House Energy and Commerce Committee Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., said. “There are ongoing security concerns, paired with limited transportation through difficult terrain.”

  • The White House resisted allowing an American doctor exposed to Ebola return to the US for treatment, The Washington Post reported.


Oman talks to Iran about safe ship passage through Hormuz

Updated May 22, 2026, 7:17pm GMT+9
Vessels sail through the Strait of Hormuz.
Stringer/Reuters

Oman is in talks with Iran to implement a system for charging ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz — an idea flatly rejected by the US, suggesting that no immediate end to the war is in sight.

Washington has touted progress in negotiations with Tehran and several Asian nations have ferried some energy through the waterway, which has been blocked because of the conflict, but the global economy is suffering.

Business activity has slowed in Europe and Asia, and economists have lowered their forecasts for global growth. An ING analyst warned that higher energy prices and uncertainty do “not bode well” for Germany’s economy in the coming quarter, while several Asian currencies have fallen against the dollar.

A chart showing the Eurozone’s GDP growth.
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US to send 5,000 troops to Poland

Updated May 22, 2026, 7:19pm GMT+9
Trump and the President of Poland Karol Nawrocki.
Trump and the President of Poland Karol Nawrocki. Brian Snyder/Reuters

US President Donald Trump said he would deploy 5,000 troops to Poland, reversing a prior decision as European leaders vie to contain a growing transatlantic rift.

The continent is nonetheless bracing for a potential wider US troop drawdown expected to be announced as early as today, Politico reported.

The straining of ties — the US secretary of state voiced “disappointment” with NATO’s lack of support for the US war with Iran — has led analysts to question the alliance’s future viability, with some leaders calling on Europe to reduce its military dependence on the US. Greater defense spending would allow Europe to address the US from a position of increased “diplomatic leverage,” Greece’s prime minister told the Financial Times.

 A chart showing 2025 defense spending as a share of GDP.

Cuba accepts $100M in US aid as domestic crisis deepens

Updated May 22, 2026, 7:22pm GMT+9
A street in Havana.

The US said Cuba had accepted $100 million in aid, a decision that may temporarily alleviate the crisis on the island nation even if a long-term solution remains elusive.

A US oil embargo has significantly worsened conditions in Cuba, with regions going days without power. But US Secretary of State Marco Rubio — whose parents fled the island after Fidel Castro seized power — said the chances of a negotiated solution were “not high,” with Washington sticking to its stated goal of ousting Cuba’s communist regime.

Washington has continued building its legal case against Havana, which analysts say may be a pretext for a military operation in the country, though such a move could spill over into a wider geopolitical crisis.

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Trump faces further Republican rebellion

Updated May 22, 2026, 8:11pm GMT+9
US President Donald Trump.

Republicans are increasingly breaking with US President Donald Trump.

GOP senators refused to vote on funding for immigration enforcement after Trump proposed a $1.8 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” designed to compensate those ostensibly politically targeted by the Justice Department.

The party’s leaders in the House of Representatives also blocked a vote on forcing Trump to seek approval for the Iran war after it became clear that they lacked the votes to defeat it, again thanks to a rebellion.

Trump’s standing with GOP legislators is at its lowest point of his second term, Semafor’s US politics team reported: One senator called the AWF a “slush fund,” while others were angered by the president undermining a well-liked lawmaker in a recent primary.

China bans import of some Nvidia chips

Updated May 22, 2026, 8:21pm GMT+9
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

China banned the import of some Nvidia chips, underscoring Beijing’s determination to produce its own advanced semiconductors in the AI race with the US.

The decision dealt a blow to the American tech firm, whose CEO was a last-minute addition to US President Donald Trump’s Beijing visit and who had long lobbied the White House to ease export restrictions on China-bound chips.

The US AI advantage is precarious, experts told Semafor: China retains some advantages, including abundant, cheap energy and outsized manufacturing capacity. “The Chinese model, maybe it’s only 90% as good, but it is 10% as expensive,” an expert told the BBC.

Retail signals portend trouble for US consumers

Updated May 22, 2026, 7:39am GMT+9
A customer shops for toys for holiday gifts at a Walmart
Mike Segar/File Photo/Reuters

Major US retailers suggested shoppers are reining in spending as the Iran war raises prices on essential goods.

Walmart on Thursday reported a worse-than-expected outlook, noting that its sales were driven by lower-price goods.

The average number of gallons a customer buys at Walmart gas stations has fallen to 2022 levels, in an “indication of stress” amid soaring fuel prices, the company’s finance chief said.

A Target executive echoed those fears, saying this week that “sentiment has been declining recently.”

The signals spell trouble for an economy that has chugged along thanks in part to “resilient” consumers.

US manufacturing activity picked up this month, new data showed, as companies stock up their inventories to protect against potential shortages and price hikes.

Chart showing gas prices

War dents Saudi’s efforts to diversify economy

Updated May 22, 2026, 7:44am GMT+9
A general view of King Salman Park
Hamad I Mohammed/Reuters

The Iran war is undermining Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify away from oil, while boosting the kingdom’s oil revenues.

Riyadh ordered government entities to freeze payments to strategy advisers, management consultants, and law firms, which were central to the kingdom’s efforts to reinvent its economy and become a global business and entertainment hub, Semafor reported.

The Esports World Cup was moved from Saudi Arabia to Paris because of the war, and the country’s sovereign wealth fund recently pulled out of LIV Golf.

But the conflict is delivering a fresh oil windfall for the kingdom.

Thanks to its ability to export via the Red Sea and rising oil prices, Saudi oil export revenues jumped to a more than three-year high in March.

Chart showing Saudi Arabia’s quarterly budget balance

China looks for signs of optimism in its housing market

Updated May 22, 2026, 7:40am GMT+9
Florence Lo/File Photo/Reuters

Economists debated whether there’s light at the end of the tunnel for China’s multiyear property slump.

Home prices in the country’s largest cities have ticked up this year, and sellers’ “panic listings” have fallen.

Some analysts “see a turning point” in the crisis and predict home prices will start recovering later this year, The New York Times wrote.

Others argue the uptick in prices is just a lull before another downturn. China’s economy still faces steep challenges.

Core unemployment is hovering near record highs, according to data released this week. Growth in investment, industrial production, and retail sales all slowed in April. And corporate earnings are lagging behind stock market valuations.

Trump postpones signing AI and cybersecurity order

Updated May 22, 2026, 7:35am GMT+9

US President Donald Trump on Thursday postponed signing an executive order on AI and cybersecurity over concerns it could shrink the country’s AI lead over China.

The order laid out “a voluntary framework” for AI firms to share their new models with the government before their public release, stemming from concerns that high-powered AI systems, like Anthropic’s unreleased Mythos, could pose cybersecurity risks to national security and the economy.

AI companies had already been briefed about the directive, but Trump said he “didn’t like certain aspects of it.”

Still, the order illustrates his administration’s deepening reach into private enterprise: The government said Thursday it was taking more equity stakes in tech companies in a bid to boost the quantum-computing industry.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX eyes record $80B IPO

Updated May 21, 2026, 8:00pm GMT+9
Steve Nesius/Reuters

SpaceX’s IPO filing revealed the company’s changing direction.

Elon Musk’s firm expects to raise about $80 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, by far the largest public offering in history. It reported rapidly increasing revenue — $18.67 billion in 2025, up 33% year-on-year, most of it generated by its satellite broadband arm Starlink. But it also announced a $4.94 billion net loss, driven by its merger with Musk’s AI firm xAI, on which SpaceX spent $20 billion last year.

The filing predicts enormous future growth, much of it from the heavy-duty rocket Starship, expected to enter service this year, but also from AI: Musk has bet big on orbital data centers to meet growing compute demand.

Oil price jump after Iran says it will not submit to US

Updated May 21, 2026, 10:43pm GMT+9
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran’s Presidential website/WANA.

Oil prices jumped to around $100 a barrel after Iran’s president said his country would not be cowed into surrendering.

Despite two Chinese tankers making it through the Strait of Hormuz, crude prices jumped by around 3% after Masoud Pezeshkian said it was a “delusion” that Iran would be forced into submission.

While the oil market has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the largest energy shock in history, it is fast approaching a breaking point, Reuters’ energy columnist argued.

Global supplies are dwindling, while countries across the world are accelerating their push to cut back on fossil fuel consumption, whether by greening their grids or incentivizing EV uptake. “Where things stand today is already somber” for the oil market, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote.

Pakistan seeks to revive deadlocked US-Iran talks

Updated May 21, 2026, 8:27pm GMT+9

Pakistan’s military ruler is due in Tehran in a bid to revive deadlocked US-Iran ceasefire talks, but with his country facing an increasingly tricky balance.

Once a pariah in Washington, Islamabad has recast itself as a mediator in the Middle East conflict, but is having to manage complex ties: It has sent thousands of soldiers and a squadron of jets to Saudi Arabia, Reuters reported, as part of a mutual defense pact being tested by attacks from Iran, whose materiel Pakistan has recently housed.

“For Pakistan, the best outcome is an end to the Iran war,” a Foreign Policy columnist wrote. “That would … reduce the pressure that it feels as it walks the tightrope between Iran and its Arab rivals.”

US indicts former Cuban President Raúl Castro

Updated May 21, 2026, 7:41pm GMT+9

The US indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro, potentially setting the stage for a military intervention in the island nation.

The indictment alleges Castro was responsible for shooting down two civilian planes carrying aid to Cuba in 1996. Washington appears to be following the same playbook it used to oust the former president of Venezuela, first building a legal case and then deploying military assets to the region: The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier arrived in the Caribbean on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the situation in Cuba remains dire amid lengthy power cuts that have left many, including hospital patients, struggling. But some remain hopeful: “Something good has to come out of all this,” a Havana resident told The Wall Street Journal.

Israeli minister prompts outrage over activist video

Updated May 21, 2026, 10:19pm GMT+9

Israel’s security minister posted a video showing him taunting pro-Palestinian detainees, sparking condemnation from some of the country’s closest allies.

The US ambassador to Israel said the minute-long video posted by Itamar Ben-Gvir — which shows security officers manhandling members of an international aid flotilla — had “betrayed [the] dignity of his nation.

Germany’s ambassador too said it was “wholly unacceptable,” a rare sign of criticism from the European nation, which must walk a tightrope given its historic relationship with Israel. While Berlin says it “stands by Israel’s side in deep friendship,” a survey published last year showed a majority of Germans believe Israel’s actions in Gaza amount to genocide.

US sends deportees to Sierra Leone

Updated May 21, 2026, 7:42pm GMT+9
Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters

A plane carrying nine US deportees arrived in Sierra Leone on Wednesday, a move widely condemned by rights groups and experts.

The West African country joins several other nations on the continent that have agreed to receive third-country migrants deported from the US. D

espite external criticism, Washington’s immigration crackdown — which has led to the lowest number of undocumented crossings of its southern border in years — remains broadly popular among Republican voters; a recent poll showed more than three-quarters want the next party candidate to keep the same direction on immigration. But the policy could have considerable economic consequences: A recent estimate suggests the crackdown could lead to almost $500 billion in lost tax revenue over the next decade.

Nvidia beats on earnings, but faces headwinds

Updated May 21, 2026, 7:29am GMT+9
Go Nakamura/Pool/Reuters

Nvidia’s revenue topped estimates for the latest quarter, the chip giant reported Wednesday, but it faces challenges ranging from macroeconomic headwinds and its China business to sky-high market expectations.

Despite its blockbuster earnings streak, Nvidia shares have tumbled following the past three quarterly reports.

“Analyst expectations may have hit unattainable highs” for the world’s most valuable company, CNBC wrote.

Beijing reportedly banned a Nvidia gaming chip during the US-China summit, and much will depend on what the company says about its China sales.

US bond market jitters stemming from the Iran war also threaten the AI boom, which Nvidia is central to, Bloomberg reported.

Meta begins layoffs amid rising AI angst

Updated May 21, 2026, 7:30am GMT+9
Mike Blake/Reuters

Meta began laying off thousands of workers on Wednesday, with plans to axe 10% of its staff to offset AI costs, and move another 7,000 into AI-focused roles.

The market may respond positively when tech companies cite AI for layoffs — Meta’s shares went up Wednesday — but the industry-wide AI pivot is stoking angst among the public, particularly young people entering a tough job market.

Speakers have been booed for mentioning AI in US graduation speeches.

AI is rapidly advancing, and the growing backlash against it is also “all but unprecedented in its speed,” The Wall Street Journal wrote.

One reason is that Americans “know our government is too sclerotic to handle [AI],” a New York Times columnist argued.

OpenAI, SpaceX IPOs on deck

Updated May 21, 2026, 7:24am GMT+9
Carlos Barria/Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

The market is bracing for two massive initial public offerings from two tech rivals.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX on Wednesday officially disclosed plans to list on the Nasdaq. But OpenAI, led by Sam Altman, who this week fended off a lawsuit from Musk — threatens to steal the thunder from SpaceX, with a confidential filing potentially coming this week, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The listings would make 2026 the largest year ever for IPOs: AI startup Anthropic is also exploring a debut. OpenAI will likely face considerable challenges, however, including questions from investors over whether it can generate enough revenue to support its data center spending, amid fierce competition with Anthropic for customers.

Putin leaves China without pipeline deal

Updated May 21, 2026, 7:15am GMT+9

The Russian president’s trip to China this week reflected the countries’ shared opposition to a US-led world order, but Vladimir Putin left without an agreement on a long-stalled gas pipeline he urgently sought.

The lack of a deal shows that “there are limits to the love” between the two partners, the BBC’s Russia editor wrote, even as Chinese leader Xi Jinping welcomed Putin with nearly identical ceremonies to those that greeted US President Donald Trump last week.

Putin’s visit underscored a “growing imbalance” between China and Russia, while the back-to-back visits from Trump and Putin showed Xi is “now the power player to be reckoned with and courted,” The Washington Post wrote. Xi is reportedly heading to North Korea next week.

Western nations let Russia in from the cold

Updated May 21, 2026, 7:28am GMT+9
China Daily via Reuters

Energy price spikes from the Iran war are forcing Western countries to let Russia in from the cold.

The US extended Russian oil waivers this week, and the UK on Tuesday softened sanctions on jet fuel refined in third countries using Russian oil, imports of which were banned since the invasion of Ukraine.

The EU, meanwhile, may reopen formal communications with Moscow for the first time since the Ukraine war began, out of concern that Washington is distracted from peace talks by its conflict in Iran.

But the Kremlin will struggle to take advantage. Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged oil infrastructure capacity and ports, pipelines, and refineries are already running close to their limits, Reuters reported.

Trump suggests Iran talks in ‘final stages’

Updated May 21, 2026, 7:13am GMT+9
Stringer/Reuters

The US believes it is making progress with Iran in peace talks, but disagreements between Washington and Israel threaten to derail the diplomacy.

US President Donald Trump reportedly held a tense call on Tuesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who railed against a pact under consideration. Markets rebounded Wednesday after Trump said Washington is in the “final stages” with Tehran.

But he has warned of US strikes if talks fail, prompting Iran to threaten to spread the war beyond the Middle East if attacks resume. “The central question now is not whether escalation may return, but how the next phase of the conflict could unfold,” an Iran scholar wrote, “and whether another round of war would fundamentally alter the strategic deadlock.”

China, Russia offer veiled US critique during Putin visit

Updated May 21, 2026, 12:30am GMT+9
Maxim Shemetov/Pool/Reuters

Great power maneuvering dominated global diplomacy. China’s leader hosted Russia’s president, arguing that the countries offered “calm amid chaos,” a veiled critique of US foreign policy.

The EU, meanwhile, is mulling appointing a top-level envoy to talks with the Kremlin, ending a years-long communications moratorium following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, suggesting that Moscow’s pariah status may be easing. Brussels also sought to smooth ties with Washington, finalizing a transatlantic trade deal even as the US drew down its troop presence in Europe.

And the White House appeared to extend its truce with Beijing, with China confirming it had agreed to seek $30 billion worth of reciprocal superpower tariff cuts following last week’s summit with the US president.

War squeezes African, Asian economies further

Updated May 20, 2026, 9:09pm GMT+9
Monicah Mwangi/Reuters

The fallout of the Iran war deepened globally as countries struggled to contain the impact of rising fuel and commodity prices.

Higher petrol costs have sparked deadly protests and strikes across Africa, with demonstrators in Comoros, Kenya, and Mozambique clashing with authorities in recent days.

The continent is particularly vulnerable given it imports the vast majority of its fuels. And Indonesia — which has taken a considerable fiscal blow from the war — imposed export restrictions on certain commodities as it looks to boost government coffers. The war is hitting rich countries too: The UK Treasury is reportedly urging supermarkets to impose price caps on some groceries as the government vies to tame higher inflation.

WHO head warns of Ebola ‘scale and speed’

Updated May 20, 2026, 9:21pm GMT+9

The head of the World Health Organization said he was “deeply concerned about the scale and speed” of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which was already grappling with a significant aid shortfall.

Authorities in Kinshasa have reported at least 131 deaths and 500 suspected cases, though cases have also been confirmed in Kampala, the capital of neighboring Uganda. Response efforts in the DRC have been hindered by budget strains at the WHO — which the US left this year — as well as sudden Western aid cuts to Africa.

A roiling conflict in eastern DRC is compounding matters: “This outbreak is hitting a country already stretched to breaking point,” Oxfam said.

Chinese EV maker Dongfeng partners with Europe’s Stellantis

Updated May 20, 2026, 9:19pm GMT+9
Tingshu Wang/File Photo/Reuters

European auto giant Stellantis and Chinese carmaker Dongfeng unveiled a joint venture that raised the prospect of the Asian firm manufacturing EVs in France.

The two are considering converting a French Stellantis factory to build Dongfeng brands so that the latter can meet made-in-Europe regulations.

EV sales are soaring on the back of the Iran war and ever-falling battery prices; the International Energy Agency forecast that one in three cars sold globally this year would be electric or plug-in hybrids, and has consistently underestimated EV sales growth in the past.

Sales have slowed in China, the biggest market, but exports are still rising, and manufacturers are betting on ultra-fast charging as a way of sustaining adoption momentum, Wood Mackenzie noted.

Nvidia commits $90 billion to AI deals

Updated May 20, 2026, 9:24pm GMT+9

Nvidia committed $90 billion to AI deals to cement its grip on the industry.

The world’s most valuable listed company will back developers, cloud providers, and infrastructure suppliers, tying more of the AI economy to its technology and accelerating the industry’s growth. But the deal spree faces regulatory hurdles — in one agreement, Nvidia will be “simultaneously acting as customer, supplier, and a prospective shareholder,” the Financial Times wrote, something likely to attract the attention of antitrust officials.

The chip giant will release its quarterly results today, and markets will be closely watching to see if the AI spending boom’s momentum is sustained.

The US to indict former Cuban President Raúl Castro

Updated May 20, 2026, 9:17pm GMT+9

The US is expected to announce the indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro today, in what would be a major escalation of Washington’s campaign against the island nation.

The US on Monday sanctioned top political and military officials, following a tightening of economic measures that have ground Cuba’s economy to a halt and sparked rare anti-government protests.

US President Donald Trump has vowed to overthrow Havana’s leadership as he seeks to widen Washington’s influence in Latin America; in January, the US indicted Venezuela’s former leader as a pretext for toppling him. Trump administration officials have said a military intervention in Cuba is possible, but only if negotiations fail.

Minnesota bans prediction markets

Updated May 20, 2026, 9:26pm GMT+9

Minnesota became the first US state to ban prediction markets, in a move that widens the row over the platforms. The White House is suing to overturn the ban.

The markets were launched with high-minded ambitions of using the wisdom of the crowd to forecast future events, and help business leaders and politicians make better decisions. But they have been hit by insider-trading scandals, notably involving US military action in Venezuela and Iran.

The companies have a major incentive to prevent insider trading, Semafor’s business editor wrote: Polymarket is more valuable as a tool to help big firms hedge investment risk than it is as a bookmaker for “US black-op nighttime raids.”

Trump tightens command over GOP

Updated May 20, 2026, 9:13pm GMT+9
Kylie Cooper/Reuters

US President Donald Trump gained ever tighter control over the Republican Party.

GOP critics of the president were among the highest-profile losers across dozens of state and national primaries. Kentucky’s outspoken congressman Thomas Massie was defeated in the most expensive House primary ever; Trump enemies also lost in Georgia and Louisiana.

The president has “near-total control” over the GOP, Semafor’s senior Washington editor wrote, but carries a 37% approval rating into the midterms: He is likely to lead “a party that’s both more loyal and less powerful.” Despite the results, opposition is unlikely to dissipate soon. A resolution to limit Trump’s war powers advanced in the Senate on the seventh attempt, after four Republicans voted with the opposition.

Trump threatens ‘another big hit’ on Iran if talks fail

Updated May 20, 2026, 7:19am GMT+9
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

The US and Iran remain far apart on the terms of a potential peace deal, raising doubts about finding an off-ramp to the conflict during a strained ceasefire.

US President Donald Trump delayed strikes against Iran in light of ongoing negotiations, but on Tuesday threatened “another big hit” if talks failed, leaving the Middle East on edge, with mediators seeing little progress.

The unpredictability poses a growing risk to energy markets and is muddying analysts’ crystal balls, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell wrote: One expert put the odds of renewed military escalation at 70%, while another predicted the Strait of Hormuz would reopen in June. Some NATO members have pushed for the alliance to help ships through the waterway if it hasn’t reopened by July.



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