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[–]Lightspeedius 25 points26 points  (8 children)

A problem is there are too many ways she could have died, with only a small subset of those scenarios being ones where there would be evidence remaining. And that evidence is lacking.

The whole exercise feels very British to me for some reason. Sir Edmund Hillary comes to mind, except he survived all his mad expeditions. I suspect his preparedness is a significant factor. Earhart's final attempt seems overridden by drive and compulsion, at the expense of maximising chances of success or at least survival.

[–]1phatdude[S] 5 points6 points  (7 children)

Yeah... Earhart even acknowledged she may not survive the journey yet she was still willing to put her life on the line to be the first woman to circumnavigate around the globe in a plane. Pretty strange. 

Kinda wonder if she had philanthropic donors or corporate sponsors of some type. 

[–]Dangerous_Ant3260 8 points9 points  (6 children)

The woman in photos on Saipan wasn't Ms. Earhart, it was disproven a long time ago.

[–]1phatdude[S] 2 points3 points  (5 children)

Yes, I am aware of that, but I still included it as that is one of the more interesting theories as to what happened to her and Noonan. 

And to be fair the woman in the photo did look like her. 

[–]Dangerous_Ant3260 3 points4 points  (4 children)

Yes, the woman in that photo looked like her to me, but supposedly it was actually before it could have been Earhart. Search for Amelia Earhart, or something like that was the book I saw it in. They did a ton of research but didn't come up with the right answers.

[–]1phatdude[S] 4 points5 points  (3 children)

That Discovery Channel documentary back in the day that pushed the theory Earhart and Noonan may have been taken hostage by the imperial Japanese on Saipan was a little bit absurd. They spent all that time and money making the doc to push that theory then it got debunked a short time later rather easily. 

Makes ya wonder if they ran the doc just for ratings. 

[–]Dangerous_Ant3260 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Yes, and the search book had the same material, which supposedly disappeared before the book and documentary aired. I think if the Japanese had captured her, it would have been a big deal for propaganda reasons, and it didn't happen.

[–]1phatdude[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe, but maybe not... this was a good 4 & 1/2 years before Pearl Harbor! 

So who knows... the imperial Japanese may have preferred leave the U.S. out of it at that point. 

[–]pullpit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Three people say this in the de-classified CIA files

[–]DasWheever 17 points18 points  (8 children)

She crashed. Planes do that when they run out of fuel because of poor navigating.

[–]Primer50 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would chalk it up to poor radio knowledge more than poor navigating.

There is an acceptable margin of error with dead reckoning and celestial navigation.

With the radio evidence we do have Fred Noonan got Ameila very close to a tiny island in the middle of the pacific ocean.

Ameila (pilot and radio person)knew she would have to use the direction finder for them to land on Howland Island, She failed to properly learn how to use the equipment and know what frequencies to use the DF on. She chose 7500kcs. Anything above 1500kcs the direction finder became omni directional (sound coming from everywhere) it would be impossible to find a null.

Also there is a common misconception that Fred Noonan didn't know Morse code. Which is incorrect. He held a second class Commercial Radiotelegraph License in 1935. My guess is since Ameila didn't know it - away it went. She was known to be a primadonna.

[–]karmafrog1 7 points8 points  (21 children)

I buy the Nikumaroro hypothesis, the one deciding bit of evidence for me being five of six radio bearings (IIRC) taken on messages heard after her disappearance crossing there, and there supposedly not being anyone else in the region that should be on that frequency. You can handwave a lot of the other evidence away without a ton of difficulty but that factoid is pretty hard to dismiss for me.

[–]Ernesto_Bella -1 points0 points  (9 children)

The TIGHAR people are scammers.  The went there, and found discarded items and said they must be hers, even though plenty of people have visited and lived there.

Then they took a picture of what might be a piece of metal a bit offshore and said “that could be the Electra, and instead of going to check it out said “welp, we are going home we will come back to check it out after we raise a few million dollars.

[–]1phatdude[S] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Why do you think the TIGHAR people are scammers? 

Aren't they trying to figure out what happened and recover evidence? 

I'm not sure I follow the logic there. 

[–]Ernesto_Bella 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Because of what I said “oh here’s some kind of tool, only she could have left it here”

But mainly because they were like 200 yards from the plane but rather than check it out they said “oh well we will come back and check it out after we raise more money”

[–]karmafrog1 5 points6 points  (6 children)

"The TIGHAR people are scammers" statement, whether true or false, does not invalidate radio evidence from 1937. Unless you are saying they made it up.

As I said already: the other evidence can be interpreted in other ways. But to me, the radio bearings crossing on Nikumaroro is pretty convincing, and hard to explain away without making bigger reaches than the Nikumaroro scenario requires.

[–]No_Violinist_4557 1 point2 points  (5 children)

The transcript from Betty Klenck's diary from what she heard on the radio makes a lot of sense. The inference is, from her diary, is that Aerhart crash landed, possibly on the reef, with the plane partly submerged taking on water. Noonan was injured and was wanting to leave the wreckage, for whatever reason Aerhart needed him to stay and assist.

So I guess the plane eventually sank and they had to leave with minimal provisions. Perhaps they survived for weeks?

[–]karmafrog1 2 points3 points  (2 children)

There’s repeated references in the diary, once you sound them off phonetically, that are one degree off her last line of position (158/338).  I find that extremely interesting since it’s buried so deep as to not notice and, written as they are as streams of random letters and numbers, seems like gibberish.

It’s not conclusive but it’s a surprising coincidence if the diary was a hoax or a misunderstanding, since no one was ever likely to notice and on the surface makes the diary less credible, I.e. “If this was Earhart why is she just spouting random numbers and letters?”  But if Earhart didn’t know where she was but she knew her line of position it would be something she would certainly say over and over.

I wouldn’t lean on Betty’s diary on its own, but that bit of evidence is very suggestive.

[–]needapermit 1 point2 points  (1 child)

And that journal reads very human. Just sortve jumbled words. It clearly seems like a 15 year old girl trying to write down everything she can through a fuzzy radio audio. Her annotations helped a lot

[–]karmafrog1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree.  If it was a hoax, a very strange way to go about it.

[–]1phatdude[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

I haven't heard about Betty Klenck's diary. That's interesting. 

If they survived for weeks on the island you have to wonder what the hell happened to them and why they weren't able to create SOS smoke signals and get the attention of the large search parties who were looking for them. 

I imagine there wasn't much sustenance on the island, but you would think there are plenty of fish if they were at all good fishermen. 

[–]Primer50 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Even TIGHAR has a disclaimer in the first paragraph of "Betty's notebook" on their website. "TIGHAR has made no judgment at this time about the possible authenticity of the transmissions"

For the post lost Signals - "The Transmitter Harmonic Power Output" article by Bob Brandenburg on TIGHAR's website. The paper overstates harmonic power dramatically. As written, the harmonic power values are mathematically wrong and physically implausible.

Basically Bob Brandenburg (a TIGHAR member) intentionally misrepresented the data so it was even remotely possible Ameila could be heard in the United States.

Anything that comes from that camp should be taken with a pound of salt.

[–]Primer50 0 points1 point  (10 children)

The Pan Am DF data is much less precise than the later maps make it appear. Most of the signals on 3105 kHz were weak, short, and fading, and the bearings were often taken minutes apart sometimes when other stations heard nothing so it’s unclear they were even measuring the same signal. Plotting those fragmentary reports as clean intersecting lines pointing to Gardner Island adds a level of certainty the original data simply doesn’t support.

Basically, one station hearing a signal would give you a rough bearing, two simultaneously a fix, three a triangulation ...the last two never happened.

The bearings commonly plotted together (Wake 144°, Midway 201°, Mokapu 215°) were not simultaneous. Two were about 8 minutes apart, and the third was taken nearly six hours later.

[–]karmafrog1 0 points1 point  (9 children)

Useful context, thank you.  But while I agree it lessens the certainty of the data, I’m not sure it changes the overall picture much.  You still have multiple bearings on multiple signals that are taken pointing to an area where there are very few people and virtually nobody that should be broadcasting on that frequency.

[–]Primer50 0 points1 point  (8 children)

All it really means is somebody somewhere was transmitting on or near 3105kcs. Pan Am DF had limitations especially at night on high frequency for example without a strong signal they can have 180° ambiguity.

If you want look up July 6th 1937 when they took a bearing on the Itaska(with a much higher powered transmitter and antenna) Honolulu was 36° off .

Which is why they moved to loran only a few years later.

[–]karmafrog1 0 points1 point  (7 children)

Right but that’s quite a handwave there.  It’s not like these bearings were taken in Chicago.  There weren’t a lot of radios in or around the middle of the Pacific in 1937, fewer still that had reason to be on that frequency.  Yours isn’t necessarily a more likely scenario than it simply being Earhart’s plane in the general area indicated, unless you are starting from the presumption it’s not…which isn’t how logical inquiry is supposed to work.

Your points are well taken and I appreciate your raising them…but they don’t carry quite as far as you are suggesting they do.

[–]Primer50 0 points1 point  (6 children)

First you would have to establish her transmitter could even reach such distances. I believe the three DF stations were 2000 to 2500 miles away from Gardner island all operating at or above their maximum range.

The radio research" Transmitter Harmonic Power Output" article by Bob Brandenburg on TIGHAR's website. The paper overstates harmonic power dramatically. As written, the harmonic power values are mathematically wrong and physically implausible.

I'm working on a paper on the history of Gardner island currently I'm looking to publish it in the next 6 months . I have been in contact with another author that is working on the bone identification. If you're interested in checking it out. bones

[–]karmafrog1 0 points1 point  (5 children)

I hear you, but doesn’t that go just the same as your other hypothetical transmissions on that frequency?  You can’t just raise the objection that we don’t know if her transmission could make it that far, and then attribute them to other radio signals coming from somewhere when we don’t know of any likely transmitters that were closer.

I’m not trying to be argumentative, you’re raising very valid points, I’m just saying to me it’s not enough to poke holes in one hypothesis, the alternate hypothesis has to also make more sense apples to apples, and I’m kind of not seeing how it does.

Your paper sounds fascinating! I will certainly click the link and take a look. Thanks!

[–]Primer50 0 points1 point  (4 children)

The TIGHAR theory is meant to be looked at as a body of work not just one aspect. Could it have been Earhart and Noonan on Gardner island possibly. In 2019 Bob Ballard the guy that found the Titanic searched the reef where Amelia was supposed to have landed and found nothing.

The most widely accepted theory is "crashed and sank" Due to fuel exhaustion studies and radio evidence.

[–]karmafrog1 0 points1 point  (3 children)

Goalpost shift. :). I wasn’t arguing for the TIGHAR theory at large and I’m strongly against lump one thing with everything else ways of thinking.  Again: not how logical inquiry is supposed to work.

It IS supposed to be about withstanding challenge and accommodating revision from someone who knows more than you though, and I very much thank you for that.

[–]Primer50 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Well the Castaway Theory is TIGHAR'S . No one else is claiming that she landed on Gardner island and transmitted for several days. When I say possible I mean a 5% chance given the evidence they have collected over 40 years and 12 expeditions.

Naticous "crashed and sank" has done all the radio research including recreating the radio calls to the Itaska with all of the correct radio equipment from 1937 they have an expedition coming this year. I've attached the testing below etc.

radio work

[–]DogWallop 3 points4 points  (4 children)

OK, there's a lot that needs addressing here. It is very true that EA and Noonan were willfully ignorant of Morse code. It is also true that EA was not a very good pilot, not through lack of ability, but because she was more intent on pursuing fame than improving her flying skills. I've heard it said that she was grossly underqualified to be pursuing a round the world navigation.

However, about her equipment, it seems that her radio was not lacking in enough power to reach the ears of those who needed to hear it. Indeed, if the famous long-distance transmissions heard by ordinary citizens in North America and the Pacific are to be believed the radio was quite adequate from my perspective. That said, it seems that the direction-finding aerial on the bottom of the plane was sheared off on takeoff at some point and she was without a critical part of her location finding gear.

As for the landing on Nikumaroro, I'm not sure... there's an extremely blurry image of what some are claiming is the wheel of the Electra. Humm. It's really so blurry it could be a diseased turnip. Inconclusive.

I think the most important thing to address is the fact that literally no part of the plane has been conclusively seen or identified from that island. And oddly, even though the island was repeatedly flown over by aircraft not long after the supposed crash there, no trace of the plane was spotted.

The bones however are interesting, as are the few artifacts that would seem to indicate that a woman had been on the island within recent memory (the shoe and that other thing). So perhaps they were indeed there. But we need a credible piece of evidence that the plane was even there. Like that wheel, which by rights should still be there in the reef.

[–]1phatdude[S] 1 point2 points  (3 children)

Some locals are claiming the image of the plane recently unearthed by a storm surge on the beach of Nikumaroro is an uprooted downed palm tree. 

But I guess we won't know until the Purdue expedition goes and explores. 

[–]thisnextchapter 1 point2 points  (2 children)

When will this be? Are you excited for it?

I just started listening to One Great Last Flight the earhart book written by the Tighar guy

[–]1phatdude[S] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

The Purdue expedition was supposed to visit Nikumaroro in October 2025 to search for Earhart's lost Elektra, but they delayed the trip until 2026. 

https://www.wave3.com/2025/10/27/purdue-university-postpones-team-expedition-search-amelia-earhart-until-2026/

[–]thisnextchapter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is there anywhere online to get hype for it other than the tighar forum

[–]thomasonia 9 points10 points  (0 children)

She died.

[–]chadlumanthehuman 2 points3 points  (2 children)

Did the Captain of the Titanic cry?

[–]lotissement 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ha, this was my first thought too! Can't see her name without thinking of that song.

[–]BigRed61475 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes he certainly did, he balled his eyes out!

[–]Big-Branch-9901 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Flew through a dimensional hole into an alternate universe (see STV)

[–]Quantum168 1 point2 points  (2 children)

Landed on an island and was eaten.

[–]1phatdude[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Eaten by what is the question? :o

[–]Appropriate-Sugar819 2 points3 points  (0 children)

crabs maybe? thoses coconut crabs? on that island

[–]No_Violinist_4557 1 point2 points  (1 child)

You would think a landing, crash landing or ditching and surviving would have been possible. The electra's stall speed was low 64mph, so it's not like they hit the reef or water at 200mph. They would have had time to plan to land/ditch as they monitored their fuel. Surviving would have been more likely than not. But then where is the wreckage?

[–]1phatdude[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, I'd think a crash landing was more than possible. 

One would imagine her Electra is  buried in a coral reef or at a very deep depth at the bottom of the ocean somewhere. 

[–]Bradsterz 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Eaten by coconut crabs

[–]Imaginary_Hall_3413 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is that you Ross