Latest: How F***ed Are Markets?
"Sharp Momentum rallies that have occurred with the S&P 500 at or near a high have generally preceded weaker subsequent equity market returns. These episodes included mid-1998, late 1999, and late 2021." - Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs
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Headline roulette once again...
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“The performance of the semis has been parabolic, so it’s not surprising there’s some profit-taking. Maybe there is also an element of the returning doubts over the monetization of AI.”
"We are scaling practical uses of automation ..."
Claims internal bullying and ideological capture forced her exit...
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"I'm pleased to announce that phased LIRR service will resume beginning tomorrow at noon."
Activists would have us believe that coal is a dying energy source...
"During World War II, Ford's assembly lines produced hundreds of thousands of aircraft, trucks, and engines..."
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The anti-migration party is just shy of the 30%, making it nearly as popular as both the CDU and SPD combined...
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"We are now reactivating it to assess disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict..."
Terms of defense pact triggered amid Iran conflict...
Ukraine condemns legitimizing the proliferation of nuclear weapons worldwide...
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“The migration crisis is not over. Germany must therefore consistently eliminate the remaining pull factors,” says a German police union leader
...peace-on, peace-off, peace-on; risk-on, risk-off, risk-on... piss off!
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Gold has gone nowhere for months. Vols have collapsed, specs remain heavily depressed, and the market has largely stopped caring just as gold approaches the major $4400 area and the huge divergence versus the Japanese long end quietly starts reopening upside squeeze potential again.
European equities remain trapped in broad ranges while defense stocks struggle despite exploding spending ambitions, banks have stalled after the rerating, and industrials are now getting aggressively sold again. European volatility continues trading stubbornly stressed relative to VIX, quietly signaling that markets still do not trust the Europe comeback narrative.
Every bubble eventually develops its own religion. This one worships AI, ignores bond yields and believes momentum only travels upward. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is levitating, Treasury yields are back at crisis-era levels, and even Goldman admits the math is getting difficult. Here are five longer-term charts that feel a bit like swearing inside the bull market cathedral.
Europe entered the year hoping for stabilization. Instead, the data keeps deteriorating. Across growth surveys, industrial activity, defaults, inflation expectations and equity volatility, a growing number of charts now suggest the continent may be drifting toward stagnation just as the U.S. accelerates. These 12 charts paint an increasingly uncomfortable picture.
Too much confidence
Momentum maxed out. Hedge funds all hiding in the same AI trade. Leveraged ETF gamblers flooring the accelerator. Goldman sentiment finally stretched. Systematics ready to dump billions in almost any tape. We may have to trade lower this week.
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