Latest: How F***ed Are Markets?
"Sharp Momentum rallies that have occurred with the S&P 500 at or near a high have generally preceded weaker subsequent equity market returns. These episodes included mid-1998, late 1999, and late 2021." - Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs
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Headline roulette once again...
...peace-on, peace-off, peace-on; risk-on, risk-off, risk-on... piss off!
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“The transformation not seen in a century is accelerating across the globe, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent...”
"This was not health care. It was a billion-dollar fraud machine..."
A civilization survives only when there remain spheres of life politics cannot wholly absorb. Once politics becomes everything, civilization itself begins to disappear...
"The about-face by Takaichi, who had been ruling out an extra budget all along, is making markets jittery and triggering a JGB selloff across the curve"
NYT reveals far-reaching efforts...
... the Justice Department is hunting the architects of the Russia hoax, and they’re leaving no stone unturned...
"I'm going to ask the Attorney General of the United States, and the DOJ, to bring an immediate investigation into this situation."
"At some point, this cyclical category will recover, but our expectations..."
Analysts said the deal, which could create the largest regulated electric utility in the world, marks a shift back toward an integrated utility model.
At least 19 oil- and liquefied petroleum gas-carrying ships without Iranian links have both entered and exited Hormuz since March 1.
Does your American dream feel like it’s being put through a hydraulic press?
There was no immediate indication as to why Sheinbaum's administration singled out Royal Caribbean, or whether the scrutiny was connected in any way...
...bend over and keep smiling!
NS
"So you want French fries today, right?"
What happens when optimization is itself the point of failure?
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Gold has gone nowhere for months. Vols have collapsed, specs remain heavily depressed, and the market has largely stopped caring just as gold approaches the major $4400 area and the huge divergence versus the Japanese long end quietly starts reopening upside squeeze potential again.
European equities remain trapped in broad ranges while defense stocks struggle despite exploding spending ambitions, banks have stalled after the rerating, and industrials are now getting aggressively sold again. European volatility continues trading stubbornly stressed relative to VIX, quietly signaling that markets still do not trust the Europe comeback narrative.
Every bubble eventually develops its own religion. This one worships AI, ignores bond yields and believes momentum only travels upward. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is levitating, Treasury yields are back at crisis-era levels, and even Goldman admits the math is getting difficult. Here are five longer-term charts that feel a bit like swearing inside the bull market cathedral.
Europe entered the year hoping for stabilization. Instead, the data keeps deteriorating. Across growth surveys, industrial activity, defaults, inflation expectations and equity volatility, a growing number of charts now suggest the continent may be drifting toward stagnation just as the U.S. accelerates. These 12 charts paint an increasingly uncomfortable picture.
Too much confidence
Momentum maxed out. Hedge funds all hiding in the same AI trade. Leveraged ETF gamblers flooring the accelerator. Goldman sentiment finally stretched. Systematics ready to dump billions in almost any tape. We may have to trade lower this week.
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