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2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election

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Not to be confused with 2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election.
2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election
← 2025
On or before September 8, 2026
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Riding of Scarborough Southwest
 
NDP
PC
Lib
Candidate Fatima Shaban TBD Ahsanul Hafiz
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Last election 42.89% 30.65% 22.94%
Incumbent MPP

Vacant[a]


A by-election will be held in the provincial riding of Scarborough Southwest in Ontario, Canada, following the resignation of incumbent NDP MPP Doly Begum on February 3, 2026.[1]

The writ for the by-election must be issued by August 3, 2026, with the date of the by-election being a Thursday, no later than 36 days after the writ is issued.[2]

Background

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On February 2, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Bill Blair, a former cabinet minister, would resign as member of Parliament for the federal riding of Scarborough Southwest to accept an appointment as Canada’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. Blair had previously served as minister of public safety and minister of national defence.[3][4]

On February 3, the Liberal Party of Canada announced Doly Begum as their candidate for the resulting by-election. Begum was serving as a member of Provincial Parliament for the provincial riding of Scarborough Southwest and the Deputy Leader of the ONDP. She resigned from her seat on the same day as well as her membership in the ONDP.[1][5]

Premier Doug Ford was not expected to announce a by-election date until after the 2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election was held on April 13, 2026. A provincial by-election is expected to be called for July or August.[6]

Candidates

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New Democratic Party

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The Scarborough Southwest NDP Electoral District Association held its nomination meeting on April 28, 2026. Fatima Shaban, the former federal NDP candidate in 2025 and 2026 in the federal Scarborough Southwest electoral district, was nominated as the party's by-election candidate.[7]

Also running for the nomination were Khalid Ahmed, former Ontario NDP candidate in Don Valley West, Don Valley East and Pickering—Uxbridge,[8] and social worker Veronica Javier.

Progressive Conservative Party

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Potential candidates

Liberal Party

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The Scarborough Southwest Ontario Liberal Electoral District Association held its nomination meeting on May 9, 2026, using a ranked ballot.[9] With over 1,000 total votes cast, Domino's Pizza franchisee and party organizer Ahsanul Hafiz defeated Beaches—East York MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith by 19 votes for the nomination on the final ballot, with 2025 Ontario general election candidate Qadira Jackson, and immigration consultant Mahmuda Nasrin being eliminated in earlier rounds. Erskine-Smith is also a prospective candidate in the upcoming Ontario Liberal Party leadership, and was endorsed by Prime Minister Mark Carney the night before the vote.[10][11][12][13][2][14][13][9] Hafiz and Jackson had endorsed each other and encouraged their supporters to mark the other as their second choice in the ranked ballot.[15][16] Hafiz defeated Erskine-Smith with 718 votes to 699 on the third ballot.[17] Erskine-Smith alleged irregularities in the vote, telling reporters "I've spoken to a few scrutineers already who said they've never seen anything like it, and it's unreal what happened in there", and said individuals had been allowed to vote despite having "ID issues".[18] Erskine-Smith has questioned the party's decision to invalidate 1,800 memberships[19] and has suggested that the party establishment had worked to deny him the nomination.[20] Following the vote, Erskine-Smith said he would debrief with his team before determining his next steps.[16] Interim party leader John Fraser responded to the allegations saying "the process was fair, and that if someone is saying otherwise, they should ‘prove it.’"[20][21] On May 12, 2026, Erskine-Smith appealed the results to the party's arbitration committee.[22] The appeal states, among other things, that there were 34 more ballots counted than were cast - more than the 19 vote margin of victory - among other alleged irregularities.[23]

In addition to the four candidates on the nomination ballot, Sharmina Nasrin, a former constituency office worker for Whitby Progressive Conservative MPP Lorne Coe,[9] announced her candidacy in April but was not a candidate when the nomination meeting was held. Ali Demircan, President of the Federation of Canadian Turkish Associations,[24][13] and city councillor Parthi Kandavel were reported to be a potential candidate, but did not run.[14]

Previous result

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2025 Ontario general election: Scarborough Southwest
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
New Democratic Doly Begum 14,557 42.89 –4.79 $120,161
Progressive Conservative Addie Dramola 10,400 30.65 +3.05 $45,342
Liberal Qadira Jackson 7,786 22.94 +4.38 $39,544
Green Mark Bekkering 1,194 3.52 –0.02 $3,247
Total valid votes/expense limit 33,937 99.31 ±0.00 $131,827
Total rejected, unmarked, and declined ballots 235 0.69 ±0.00
Turnout 34,172 41.96 –2.38
Eligible voters 81,434
New Democratic hold Swing –3.92
Source: Elections Ontario[25]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Seat last held by Doly Begum (New Democratic)

References

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  1. ^ Jump up to: a b Westoll, Nick (February 3, 2026). "Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum resigning, named federal Liberal candidate to succeed Bill Blair". CityNews Toronto. Retrieved February 4, 2026.
  2. ^ Jump up to: a b "Doug Ford expected to wait until summer for Scarborough Southwest byelection". Toronto Star. February 6, 2026. Retrieved February 6, 2026.
  3. ^ Robertson, Dylan (February 2, 2026). "Bill Blair to resign Toronto seat, become next high commissioner to U.K." The Globe and Mail. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  4. ^ "Bill Blair resigning seat, will become next high commissioner to U.K." CTV News. The Canadian Press. February 2, 2026. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  5. ^ "Ontario NDP MPP resigns to run for federal Liberals in upcoming byelection". Global News. February 3, 2026. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  6. ^ Benzie, Robert; Ferguson, Rob; Welsh, Moria (April 3, 2026). "Doug Ford eyes a byelection win in Scarborough amid Liberal and NDP troubles". Toronto Star. Retrieved April 3, 2026.
  7. ^ "New Democrats in Scarborough Southwest elect Fatima Shaban to carry the banner for upcoming by-election". Ontario NDP. Ontario NDP. Retrieved April 29, 2026.
  8. ^ "Instagram". www.instagram.com. Retrieved April 17, 2026.
  9. ^ Jump up to: a b c "Ontario Liberals reveal date for Scarborough Southwest byelection nomination". Toronto Star. April 14, 2026. Retrieved April 14, 2026.
  10. ^ "Liberal MP Erskine-Smith loses nomination battle for Ontario provincial byelection". CTV News. Canadian Press. May 9, 2026. Retrieved May 9, 2026.
  11. ^ Talbot, Michael (February 3, 2026). "Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith to seek nomination in provincial Scarborough riding being vacated by NDP's Doly Begum". CityNews Toronto. Retrieved February 4, 2026.
  12. ^ McGrath, John Michael (February 5, 2026). "ANALYSIS: Nate Erskine-Smith just got his luckiest break yet". TVO. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  13. ^ Jump up to: a b c "TVO Today | Current Affairs Journalism, Documentaries and Podcasts". www.tvo.org. Retrieved March 17, 2026.
  14. ^ Jump up to: a b Benzie, Robert; Welsh, Moira; Ferguson, Rob (February 5, 2026). "Ontario Liberals divided over Nate Erskine-Smith byelection bid". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  15. ^ Elbayoumi, Ahmad. "SCOOP: Hafiz and Jackson team up to box out Erskine-Smith". www.policorner.ca. Retrieved May 9, 2026.
  16. ^ Jump up to: a b Stone, Laura (May 9, 2026). "Nate Erskine-Smith loses Ontario Liberal nomination in Scarborough, denting leadership hopes". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved May 9, 2026.
  17. ^ Stephens, Matthew (May 10, 2026). "Ahsanul Hafiz wins Scarborough Southwest provincial Liberal nomination; Nathaniel Erskine-Smith second". Beach Metro Community News. Retrieved May 9, 2026.
  18. ^ Silva Ponte, Gabriela (May 9, 2026). "Ahsanul Hafiz wins Scarborough Southwest Ontario Liberal nomination, beats Nate Erskine-Smith". CBC News. Retrieved May 10, 2026.
  19. ^ Stone, Laura (May 5, 2026). "Erskine-Smith's campaign pushes back on Ontario Liberal Party membership rejections". Globe and Mail. Retrieved May 12, 2026.
  20. ^ Jump up to: a b Jones, Allison (May 11, 2026). "Ontario Liberal nomination race was fair, despite candidate's suspicion: interim leader". CBC News. Retrieved May 12, 2026.
  21. ^ Paikin, Steve (May 11, 2026). "ANALYSIS: The anatomy of a stunner in Scarborough Southwest". TVO Today. TVOntario. Retrieved May 12, 2026.
  22. ^ Stone, Laura (May 12, 2026). "Nate Erskine-Smith appeals results of Ontario Liberal nomination in Scarborough". Globe and Mail. Retrieved May 12, 2026.
  23. ^ Ferguson, Rob (May 12, 2026). "Nate Erskine-Smith appeals Liberal nomination loss in Scarborough". Toronto Star. Retrieved May 12, 2026.
  24. ^ "Let the race begin". www.policorner.ca. Retrieved February 9, 2026.
  25. ^ "Vote Totals From Official Tabulation" (PDF). Elections Ontario. March 3, 2025. Retrieved March 4, 2025.
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