Yeah seems I was right, from a 1299/Arelion ticket:
We understand completely that you are experiencing changed network performance toward certain routes outside AS1299 to AS2914 in Europe. Unfortunately, NTT is no longer a peer to Arelion/Twelve99 in Europe. We have tried to come to an agreement with their peering management for more than a year without any success.
We are still connected to NTT in North America, and we're hoping that they will soon revisit their decision. We are awaiting a response from them we hope to hear from them soon.
I guess that confirms it. NTT-Arelion have depeered in the EU, traffic between the two will divert around the US for now until they solve their "peering management" issues.
This brings NTT up to two peering disputes, NTT-Cogent and NTT-Arelion are de-peered in the EU as of now.
I also just checked and it seems that Arelion-TATA has been resolved, as they seem peered in the EU once more.