Palestine is Trump’s leverage to end the Iran War

To end the Iran war not in diplomatic defeat, Trump needs leverage on Iran. Here is one. It relates to an issue on which the entire Muslim world agrees: The state of Palestine must form.

The Palestinian wound has festered for decades, and Iran has exploited it to justify its “axis of resistance” against Israel and the US. Palestine is what gives Iran its ideological fervor. Leave this wound open, and it feeds into every conflict in the region. Address it, and a new Middle East will emerge.

For decades, Washington has viewed the Palestinian wound as a moral or humanitarian burden. Now, Trump can use it as leverage.

So what would happen if the U.S. were to offer to form Palestine as part of a deal to end this war permanently? First, Saudi Arabia could lead a comprehensive Arab peace with Israel. Washington has hoped for this since the Abraham Accords. It could now get it, by paying the price of forming Palestine. Paying that price will rally the entire Arab and Muslim world behind a framework that serves American interests: ceasefire, nuclear containment, normalization, regional economic integration, and the disarmament of non-state militias.

Second, Iran yearns and strives for Palestinian statehood — its entire revolutionary identity since 1979 is built on championing the Palestinian cause. By joining a comprehensive deal that includes the formation of Palestine, Iran would achieve its decades-long quest and could thus forgo the “axis of resistance” that has drained its resources. The Arab world could then admit Iran back into its fold, repairing the rift caused by the war with a joint achievement: the birth of Palestine. In such a deal, Iran would gain what the war cannot deliver: the formation of Palestine, sanctions relief, an end to its economic isolation, and a nuclear agreement guaranteeing its security.

Third, with Palestine established, the justification for Hezbollah keeping its arms will disappear. Lebanon could finally disarm it, restore its sovereignty, and make peace with Israel. Peace between Israel and Syria should not trail far behind.

The legal groundwork for this already exists. Resolutions of the UN General Assembly and Security Council, and rulings of the International Court of Justice. The court concluded in July 2024 that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful. One hundred fifty-seven countries have recognized Palestine. All that is needed now is an American decision to support Palestinian statehood at the Security Council as part of a comprehensive regional peace agreement.

Such an agreement should be anchored by a Security Council resolution admitting Palestine as the 194th member, on the internationally recognized borders of June 4, 1967, with its capital in East Jerusalem. It should establish the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and all 57 member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation — notably including Saudi Arabia and Iran. It should include an updated nuclear agreement with Iran, ending its ballistic missile program and economic sanctions. It should terminate all claims and states of belligerency, including the defunding and disarmament of all non-state militias. And it should affirm the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of every state in the region.

Like many Israelis, I believe that the occupation is destroying Israel from within. It has run us along a path from occupation to settlements, to millions of Palestinians living without equal civil and political rights, to the October 7 massacre, and from there to the destruction of Gaza and to pogroms and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, to war with Iran. This is not a series of accidents but a chain of causation that can only be stopped by healing the festering wound — an end to the occupation and the formation of Palestine, resulting in equality and security for all peoples in the region. This deal offers exactly that, and Israel will not have a secure future without it.

This deal serves the genuine interests of every party. Trump gets to be the leader who brought peace to the entire Middle East. Saudi Arabia gets security through peace. Iran gets sanctions relief and re-entry into the Arab and international sphere. Lebanon gets its sovereignty back. The Palestinians get a state. And Israel gets peace with its neighbors — near and far — and recognition by the entire Muslim world.

Trump now has the leverage to force this deal on Israel’s government, for the benefit of its people and all the people in the region. He should do it.

Ehud Shapiro is Professor Emeritus at the Weizmann Institute of Science and Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics.