Is the US ready for ‘World War Drone’?

Back in the day, I worked on our ballistic missile defense program and marveled at the ever-advancing technologies and various real-time threats they were meant to defeat. Today, I am shocked at the almost daily improvements in drone technology and the armadas they are producing — and wonder if the United States could be on the wrong end of “World War Drone.” 

The wars in Ukraine and Iran are providing multiple forces — most especially our adversaries — with real-time results, analysis, solutions and projections. As was reported in the Military Times, “in the first week alone, the U.S. and Israel struck more than 3,000 targets across Iran while Tehran fired over 500 ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 drones at U.S. bases and Israeli cities across 12 countries, burning through over 800 Patriot interceptor missiles in three days — more than Ukraine received from allies throughout four years of war.” 

One immediate lesson as the war against Iran goes on is that if we are using multimillion-dollar interceptor ballistic missiles to try and take down thousand-dollar drones, we are on the wrong side of the equation.  

There is hardly a week that goes by that financial channels such as CNBC and Fox Business are not reporting pending IPOs of new private drone companies. How much longer will it be before the likes of China, Russia or a rogue state such as Iran can manufacture relatively inexpensive, much larger drones, which can not only carry much heavier payloads (such as ballistic missiles) but fly at much higher speeds, higher altitudes and for much longer distances — say, across oceans? And, because they will be relatively inexpensive compared to our multimillion-dollar missiles, an adversary could fly hundreds of decoys around several drones carrying ballistic missiles to increase the odds of such missiles getting through a defense. 

That scenario raises an obvious question: Where is the United States in the development of such large strike drones? We obviously are in the fight, but are we already behind the curve?  

As The Wall Street Journal recently reported: “When President Trump ordered the U.S. military to strike Tehran’s nuclear sites in June, a formation of B-2 stealth bombers escorted by jet fighters ventured deep into Iran to strike their targets with massive bunker-busting bombs. But when Trump ordered widespread strikes on Iran’s military sites two weeks ago, the first aircraft to lumber across the border were slow-moving MQ-9 Reaper drones. They have been used in the battle against the Iranians ever since.” 

Air & Space Forces Magazine recently reported, “MQ-9 Reapers are flying numerous orbits over Iran, gathering intelligence and taking out missile launchers in Operation Epic Fury. Yet Iran has managed to down about 10 of the armed drones, according to people familiar with the operations.”

Since the invention of the wheel, someone has been working on the “new, new thing.” What is our “new, new” thing when it comes to drone warfare?  

Back on Sept. 12, 1962, during his now iconic speech at Rice University, John F. Kennedy stressed the critical need for the U.S. to become the “preeminent spacefaring nation.” Said the young president: “We mean to be a part of it — we mean to lead it. … And only if the United States occupies a position of preeminence can we help decide whether this new ocean will be a sea of peace or a new terrifying theater of war.” 

Now, we suddenly have a “new ocean” above our heads as various nations — and existing adversaries — develop their Unmanned Aerial Vehicle armadas. Is the United States now the “preeminent drone force” in the world? If not, what will it take to get us there? 

China, Russia, Iran and others are embracing and rapidly advancing this new war-fighting technology. The United States cannot afford to be on the wrong side of “World War Drone.” 

Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.