Market icon

Oscars 2026: Best Live Action Short Film Winner

The Singers 28.5%

A Friend of Dorothy 22.0%

Two People Exchanging Saliva 46.0%

Jane Austen's Period Drama 6.0%

Polymarket
Jan 25Feb 8Feb 22Mar 80%10%20%30%40%50%

$540,743 Vol.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$540,743
End Date
Mar 15, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 4:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

AirZone
"People" is ahead of "Singers" using the alphabetical rule for the next full word in the title!
Icky-Strategy
@AirZone
I can’t believe there are so many people who don't understand the meaning of 'alphabetical order.' Open a dictionary or an encyclopedia (those are these things called books, ask your parents about them) and find out what it is. Or at least Google it.
Blue-Horseshoe
Blue-Horseshoe
Isn't it reasonable to argue that "The" and "Two" both start with T, which cancel each other out, and therefore the tie must be broken by using the alphabetical order of the second word of the title? "P" from "People" comes before "S" from "Singers"? Nowhere in the rules did it state that the alphabetical tie-break rule is letter by letter of the first word and not first letter of each word in the title.
enzim
Both films begin with T.
Blue-Horseshoe
Blue-Horseshoe
@enzim
Exactly, and the rules clearly did NOT outline that in the event that both films start with the same letter, the next letter of the first word of the title is used for the tie-break. If anything, "People" is ahead of "Singers" using the alphabetical rule for the next full word in the title.
enzim
CHANGE THE ALPHABET NOW
DOJ
DOJ
Ties are seldom occurrences. It's better to make this a negrisk market than to include an "other "option.
Obj0x
Obj0x
This is a bullshit rule
enzim
I lose 40 dol...
geopolitical-expert
geopolitical-exp...
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Oscars 2026: Best Live Action Short Film Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Singers" at 100%, followed by "A Friend of Dorothy" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oscars 2026: Best Live Action Short Film Winner" has generated $540.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oscars 2026: Best Live Action Short Film Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oscars 2026: Best Live Action Short Film Winner" is "The Singers" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "A Friend of Dorothy" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oscars 2026: Best Live Action Short Film Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.