…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (as of 1/30) – new year's reacceleration maintained at January month-end, after 2025YE's low velocity run-rate in the wake of October's government shutdown:
+5.6% mtd yoy (growth rate +4.5pp mom²
and +3.6pp yoy)
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¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily #dts)
²calendar effects (one less weekday in January 2026 vs 2025 and 2024, so yoy comps not truly apples-to-apples, albeit mitigated by my weekday average adjustment
+5.6% mtd yoy (growth rate +4.5pp mom²
and +3.6pp yoy)
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¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily #dts)
²calendar effects (one less weekday in January 2026 vs 2025 and 2024, so yoy comps not truly apples-to-apples, albeit mitigated by my weekday average adjustment
