institutions and defense companies.
Beijing’s polar exploration echoes its military expansion in the South China Sea.
In the Arctic, the US and NATO worry most about subsea warfare. Submarine navigation relies on detailed knowledge of ocean-floor topography and undersea conditions. China is cataloging the world’s oceans to build computer models to guide submarines and help them evade detection.
“China doesn’t field the world’s largest fleet of oceanographic survey ships because they want to save the whales. China aims to take the lead in marine and climate science because understanding the ocean and the climate is a critical enabler to success in naval operations, particularly in anti-submarine warfare.”
Data that China gathered from its Arctic dives north of Alaska and Greenland can be used to educate its navy, which operates relatively noisy submarines that are easily tracked by US forces.
Arctic ice impedes airborne submarine detection that works in other oceans. Water temperature layers and changing salinity from melting ice interfere with sonar. Icebergs colliding and the chatter of marine mammals generate sounds that complicate submarine detection. Information gathered on Chinese Arctic voyages enables its scientists to build computer models of undersea conditions, which its navy can later tap to plot routes allowing them to operate more freely in the open sea.
China’s ultimate aim is to end “American undersea dominance.”
To help Beijing reach that goal, Russia is expected to provide submarine technology.
Beijing sells Russia electronics and components for military equipment Moscow needs to wage its war in Ukraine, and ships civilian products restricted by international sanctions over the war.
Russia is believed to be repaying China’s help, in part, by sharing advanced technologies in space, stealth aircraft and undersea warfare. Russia’s nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarines, and its agility in deploying them, have kept the country a superpower, despite its economic decline since the breakup of the Soviet Union.
China is already mastering other complex naval domains. It now deploys three aircraft carriers, among the most demanding surface warships to build, manage and deploy effectively. Only the US has more.
Both Beijing and the US are short of vessels capable of navigating thick Arctic ice compared with Russia, which has more than 40. China last year commissioned its fifth icebreaker. The US has only two in operation, and Trump is buying more.
After years of development, China launched its first domestically built icebreaker in 2019 with Finnish help. Last year, it built and deployed its first domestically designed icebreaker in 10 months, a swift accomplishment noted with worry in Arctic countries.
Russia also has advocated for greater Chinese involvement in governance of the High North and invited China to develop infrastructure in Arctic Russia. The two nations created a working group in 2023 to develop northern sea routes. They agreed to coordinate Arctic maritime law-enforcement, initiated by their recent joint patrols.
“China wants to shape rules before they are settled. Early presence shapes future influence.”
China’s expanding presence and influence in the Arctic helps Russia now, but it might prove to be a problem for Moscow later. Since the Cold War, the Arctic has offered Russia a remote sanctuary for much of its nuclear arsenal. Until now, only the US could seriously threaten Russian bases or military assets there.
Chinese vessels operating north of Russia could complicate matters for Moscow, especially if the national interests of the two countries diverge and their no-limits partnership breaks down.
In the future China’s navy may be able to sail from the Pacific to the Atlantic over the Arctic.
“… the threat that is in the Pacific is ubiquitous. If we have Asian forces in the Atlantic, it would be a huge game-changer. And we need to be prepared for that.”
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