Health effects associated with consumption of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fatty acids: a Burden of Proof study

doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03775-8

. 2025 Jun 30.

doi: 10.1038/s41591-025-03775-8. Online ahead of print.

Health effects associated with consumption of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fatty acids: a Burden of Proof study

Demewoz Haile¹, Kassandra L Harding², Susan A McLaughlin², Charlie Ashbaugh², Vanessa Garcia², Nora M Gilbertson^{2

3}, Hewan Kifle², Marie C Parent^{2

3}, Reed J D Sorensen², Simon I Hay^{2

3}, Aleksandr Y Aravkin^{2

4}, Peng Zheng^{2

3}, Jeffrey D Stanaway^{2

3}, Christopher J L Murray^{2

3}, Michael Brauer^{2

5}

Affiliations

¹ Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. dhwolde@uw.edu.
² Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
³ Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁴ Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁵ School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

PMID: 40588677
DOI: 10.1038/s41591-025-03775-8

Health effects associated with consumption of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fatty acids: a Burden of Proof study

Demewoz Haile et al. Nat Med. 2025.

. 2025 Jun 30.

doi: 10.1038/s41591-025-03775-8. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. dhwolde@uw.edu.
² Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
³ Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁴ Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁵ School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

PMID: 40588677
DOI: 10.1038/s41591-025-03775-8

Abstract

Previous research suggests detrimental health effects associated with consuming processed foods, including processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and trans fatty acids (TFAs). However, systematic characterization of the dose-response relationships between these foods and health outcomes is limited. Here, using Burden of Proof meta-regression methods, we evaluated the associations between processed meat, SSBs and TFAs and three chronic diseases: type 2 diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and colorectal cancer. We conservatively estimated that-relative to zero consumption-consuming processed meat (at 0.6-57 g d^-1) was associated with at least an 11% average increase in type 2 diabetes risk and a 7% (at 0.78-55 g d^-1) increase in colorectal cancer risk. SSB intake (at 1.5-390 g d^-1) was associated with at least an 8% average increase in type 2 diabetes risk and a 2% (at 0-365 g d^-1) increase in IHD risk. TFA consumption (at 0.25-2.56% of daily energy intake) was associated with at least a 3% average increase in IHD risk. These associations each received two-star ratings reflecting weak relationships or inconsistent input evidence, highlighting both the need for further research and-given the high burden of these chronic diseases-the merit of continuing to recommend limiting consumption of these foods.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

References

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[1] Monteiro, C. A. et al. Ultra-processed foods: what they are and how to identify them. Public Health Nutr. 22, 936–941 (2019). - PubMed - PMC - DOI

[2] Monteiro, C. A. et al. Ultra-processed foods: what they are and how to identify them. Public Health Nutr. 22, 936–941 (2019). - PubMed - PMC - DOI

[3] Lane, M. M. et al. Ultra-processed food exposure and adverse health outcomes: umbrella review of epidemiological meta-analyses. Br. Med. J. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077310 (2024).

[4] Lane, M. M. et al. Ultra-processed food exposure and adverse health outcomes: umbrella review of epidemiological meta-analyses. Br. Med. J. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077310 (2024).

[5] Mendoza, K. et al. Ultra-processed foods and cardiovascular disease: analysis of three large US prospective cohorts and a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Lancet Reg. Health Am. 37, 100859 (2024). - PubMed - PMC

[6] Mendoza, K. et al. Ultra-processed foods and cardiovascular disease: analysis of three large US prospective cohorts and a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Lancet Reg. Health Am. 37, 100859 (2024). - PubMed - PMC

[7] Srour, B. et al. Ultra-processed food intake and risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study (NutriNet-Santé). Br. Med. J. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l1451 (2019).

[8] Srour, B. et al. Ultra-processed food intake and risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study (NutriNet-Santé). Br. Med. J. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l1451 (2019).

[9] Brauer, M. et al. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 403, 2162–2203 (2024). - DOI

[10] Brauer, M. et al. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 403, 2162–2203 (2024). - DOI

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Health effects associated with consumption of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fatty acids: a Burden of Proof study

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Health effects associated with consumption of processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and trans fatty acids: a Burden of Proof study

Authors

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Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

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