Toyota Math: 9 Million EVs Are Just as Polluting as 27 Million Hybrids

Akio Toyoda is a man who speaks his mind. He’s been saying for years that forcing everyone to buy EVs isn’t the way forward. Toyota’s chairman is adamant that the transition can’t be rushed and that going all-in on electric vehicles would have massive repercussions across the automotive industry. He believes millions of jobs throughout the supply chain could be at risk if the combustion engine is phased out too quickly. On the environmental front, Toyoda maintains that EVs are still much dirtier than hybrids.

The grandson of Toyota founder Kiichiro Toyoda claims the company has sold around 27 million hybrids since launching the first-generation Prius in 1997. According to him, those hybrids have had the same carbon footprint as nine million fully electric vehicles when adding battery and vehicle production into the equation. 

Toyoda argues that a single EV is as dirty as three hybrids. However, while it's true that producing EVs and their batteries creates more carbon emissions than building gas cars, over their life cycles, EVs are responsible for far fewer overall emissions.

'But if we were to have made nine million BEVs in Japan, it would have actually increased the carbon emissions, not reduced them. That is because Japan relies on thermal power plants for electricity.'

Proving Naysayers Wrong

Toyota’s reluctance to fully embrace EVs has sparked criticism, with some even questioning the company’s future. You’ve probably seen comments predicting Toyota’s downfall for lagging in the electric race, but that hasn’t happened. In fact, the opposite is true. In 2024, Toyota was the world’s largest automaker for the fifth year in a row.

Sure, its EVs may trail the competition, but Toyota more than makes up for it with its hybrids and the remaining ICE models it still sells. The latest gas-powered car to receive the hybrid treatment is the Aygo X, the firm’s smallest model outside of the kei cars, which are sold exclusively in Japan. Toyota claims the dinky hatchback has the lowest CO₂ footprint of any non-plug-in car on the market.

Akio Toyoda once said EVs would never exceed a 30 percent market share and argued that the industry should focus on hybrids and synthetic fuels. Although it has admitted that the Mirai has been a commercial failure, Toyota remains committed to hydrogen and sees potential in combining it with combustion engines. At the same time, it’s helping BMW launch its first series-production hydrogen vehicle in 2028.

Toyota Can Do It All

As the automotive powerhouse it is, Toyota has the financial and industrial muscle to improve its hybrids while also developing better EVs. It has made the bZ more appealing and added the bZ Woodland and C-HR to its growing electric lineup. Its luxury brand Lexus recently launched the ES electric sedan and upgraded the RZ. According to a new Bloomberg report, two more EVs are coming to the U.S. by 2027.

While the spotlight is on hybrids and EVs, Toyota hasn’t forgotten the joy of driving. The company’s CEO, Koji Sato, was recently quoted as saying, “A car is not a car if it’s not fun.” In the coming years, expect a new Supra, a revived Celica, and possibly a new MR2, judging by the mid-engine prototype shown earlier this year. Lexus, too, will launch a GT3-style road car, likely with a V-8. All told, Toyota appears to have just about every base covered.

The impending return of the FJ Cruiser would further cement Toyota’s reputation for offering one of the most comprehensive lineups in the automotive industry.

New Toyota Models On The Way:

Toyota Dealers Got a Sneak Peek at the New Celica

This Might Be the New Toyota FJ Cruiser

Top comments

Gary Wozniak 2 days ago

Mr Toyoda must have done poorly in Math. A Toyota Prius gets ~50 mpg. Burning one gallon of gasoline produces 20lbs of CO2. A Tesla Model 3 LR uses 0.250 KWh/mile of electricity. The US Department of Energy puts the carbon footprint of the U.S. power grid at 0.86 lbs-CO2/kWh. Going big on the mileage, 200k miles (both vehicles are lasting that long). Over 200k miles the Prius would produce 200,000 miles ÷ 50 miles/gal × 20 lbs-CO2/gal = 80,000 lbs-CO2 or 40 tons-CO2 at the tail pipe. The Model 3 would produce 200,000 miles × 0.250 kWh/mile × 0.86 lbs-C02/kWh = 43,000 lbs-CO2 or 21.5 tons-CO2 at the power plant. Add another 6.74 tons-CO2 for the batteries carbon footprint and you have 28.25 tons-CO2 over 200k miles for the Tesla Model 3 vs 40 tons-CO2 for the Prius. In the UK they grid produces 0.54 lbs-CO2/kWh. The Model 3 would produce Mr Toyoda must have done poorly in Math. A Toyota Prius gets ~50 mpg. Burning one gallon of gasoline produces 20lbs of CO2. A Tesla Model 3 LR uses 0.250 KWh/mile of electricity. The US Department of Energy puts the carbon footprint of the U.S. power grid at 0.86 lbs-CO2/kWh. Going big on the mileage, 200k miles (both vehicles are lasting that long). Over 200k miles the Prius would produce 200,000 miles ÷ 50 miles/gal × 20 lbs-CO2/gal = 80,000 lbs-CO2 or 40 tons-CO2 at the tail pipe. The Model 3 would produce 200,000 miles × 0.250 kWh/mile × 0.86 lbs-C02/kWh = 43,000 lbs-CO2 or 21.5 tons-CO2 at the power plant. Add another 6.74 tons-CO2 for the batteries carbon footprint and you have 28.25 tons-CO2 over 200k miles for the Tesla Model 3 vs 40 tons-CO2 for the Prius. In the UK where the grid produces 0.54 lbs-CO2/kWh the Model 3 would produce

20.25 tons-CO2 over 200k miles. Nearly 20 tons less CO2 than the hybrid.

Craig Issod 2 days ago

All that writing and not commenting on this - the Real World.

Firstly, how much has US Gasoline Consumption come down in 2023/2024? Surely, if EV's were saving us so many fossil fuels, the use of Gas would be tanking.

But it is not. It's down less than 5% and most of that is due to Hybrids and better fuel efficiency.

It's amazing how far folks will go to avoid common sense. But here is the test....

If the US Government had specified ONLY Hybrids from 2017 on (they were more than perfected by that time), would gasoline use be down MUCH further than it is now?

The answer is Yes. I can do the calcs but no need to because we all know that if the last 8 years of the fleet were getting 40 to 52 MPG instead of 25, we've been saving VASTLY more than EV's.

This is why any real plan would have moved the USA to Hybrids first as we developed EV's. Of course, the tiny drop in Gas due to EV's (estimated at 2%) - we paid for that BIG TIME in costs to taxpayers, consumers and much more. Even the tires from EV's put out vastly more particulates (look it up).

It's possible to understand that someday all cars will be EV's or similar - while not at the same time burying our heads in the sand. The answer is NOT for 1,000 lb heavier cars to be in each of our garages.

Source: 45+ years as an expert and business owner in Alternative Energy - that is I.

Michael R Berger 2 days ago

Yes...but...

That only counts the carbon in the gasoline, not a full accounting from well to wheel.

However it is a full accounting for the evs electric supply.

A VdP 2 days ago

He is not reluctant to EV'S...

He doesn't want to hurry and develop different solutions for different markets..... . And he is right. Toyota will go full EV after 2030 with their full solid state Batteries.... .

Adrian Padeanu 2 days ago

Hello. I said Toyota's reluctance to fully embrace EVs.

Michael R Berger 2 days ago

Toyota's solid state batteries have been 5 years away for 2 decades.

Adam Gustafson 2 days ago

Argue with MIT:

https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-electric-vehicles-definitely-better-climate-gas-powered-cars

I get he is focused on Japan. But it's always been a both clean sources on the grid and EVs, not one or the other. In most US states, you're better off with an EV in terms of carbon footprint. MIT's analysis also doesn't take into account battery recycling coming into effect ultimately to mitigate long term carbon footprint of development IIRC

VPVP 2 days ago

Perhaps he should manufacture the EVs outside of Japan if he’s so worried about Japan’s obsolete dirty power production.

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