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Over the last 30 years, no shortage of next-big-thing investment trends have graced Wall Street. Since the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, no innovation, technology, or trend has come close to having the impact on corporate growth rates as the internet... until now.
According to the analysts at PwC, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution has the ability to increase global gross domestic product by more than $15 trillion in 2030. This is a mammoth addressable market that can support multiple big-time winners.
Yet in spite of the euphoria surrounding AI on Wall Street, quarterly filed Form 13Fs with the Securities and Exchange Commission point to mixed feelings for artificial intelligence-inspired stocks. A 13F provides investors with a concise snapshot of which stocks the smartest and most-successful money managers have been buying and selling.
In the June-ended quarter, billionaire investors sent shares of AI leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) to the chopping block and decisively piled into what can be considered their new favorite artificial intelligence stock.
Nvidia had billionaires running for the exit for a third consecutive quarter
What's particularly interesting about the selling activity in Nvidia is it marks the third straight quarter of selling by at least a half-dozen prominent billionaires. The June-ended quarter saw seven billionaire investors lighten their load, including (total shares sold in parenthesis):
Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors (9,282,018 shares)
David Tepper of Appaloosa (3,730,000 shares)
Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Family Office (1,545,370 shares)
Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management (1,360,215 shares)
Israel Englander of Millennium Management (676,242 shares)
Steven Cohen of Point72 Asset Management (409,042 shares)
Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management (96,963 shares)
Profit-taking and the need to diversify are two possible answers as to why some or all of these billionaires felt the need to reduce their stakes in Nvidia.
Since 2023 began, Nvidia's market cap has grown by $2.75 trillion, as of the closing bell on Aug. 23, 2024, which led to the company's largest-ever stock split (10-for-1) in June. This increase is due to the company's H100 graphics processing unit (GPU) becoming the standard in AI-accelerated data centers, as well as Nvidia possessing jaw-dropping pricing power, which is reflective of enterprise demand for its AI-GPUs overwhelming supply.
But there are far more reasons than just profit-taking that might explain this ongoing billionaire exodus from Nvidia.
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Private equity firms are hoping that the new Trump administration makes it easier for them access to something they have long wanted: your 401(k).
Main Street retirement savings are viewed by Wall Street investment giants as a way to boost demand for non-listed, illiquid bets that aren’t traded on any public exchange.
Such investments include real estate funds, private credit and leveraged buyouts of companies.
Typically private equity firms such as Apollo (APO), Blackstone (BX) and KKR (KKR) pool money from high net worth individuals and institutional investors such as endowments, public pensions to make these bets.
What they have long wanted to tap is more than $12 trillion currently housed in defined-contribution plans that workers rely on for their retirement nest eggs, such as 401(k)s.
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price USDApollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)
161.98-0.47(-0.29%)At close: 4:00:02 PM EST161.56-0.42(-0.26%)After hours: 7:43:04 PM ESTAPO BX KKR(left-click to pin tooltip)(right-click to deleteright-click to manage)(long-press to drag)(drag to change anchor time)APOThe Biden administration has not warmed to that idea, but industry watchers expect that to change under Donald Trump's second term. He is expected to broadly loosen regulations that affect the world of financial services.
"We’ll make the case for a pro-growth regulatory regime that supports small businesses and provides more opportunity to everyday investors," said Drew Maloney, president and CEO of private equity lobbying group American Investment Council.
The argument for such a change is that private equity funds could give everyday investors more diversification away from public markets and a shot at bigger returns — in exchange for some illiquidity.
The reasoning aligns with broader concerns many investors have over the historically high valuation of the current stock market and the concentration of Big Tech stocks. Of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 index (^GSPC), all but Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B) are tech giants. Together those 10 account for 37% of the index.
Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo, has argued that too many investors are relying on the performance of too few public companies.
"Should we get access to 401(k) through broad-based reform or regulatory change or regulatory encouragement, I believe that would be upside not just for us but for the entire industry," Rowan told analysts in November. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management)
The CEO of Apollo Global Management, Marc Rowan, in Hong Kong during 2023. (Photo by Vernon Yuen/NurPhoto via Getty Images) · NurPhoto via Getty Images Today both private and public assets carry risks and rewards, Rowan told Yahoo Finance later that same month, with more companies opting to go private than public.
"The biggest trend in our industry is investors, individual investors, and institutional investors looking at their fixed income bucket and saying to themselves, why is this 100% public?"
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US stocks were mixed on Wednesday as investors absorbed a report that President-elect Donald Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to pave the way for proposed tariffs. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed "many" officials supported a gradual pace of interest rate cuts in 2025.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed up more than 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 0.25%, or about 100 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed just below the flat line.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) hovered at 4.7% ahead of a crucial December jobs report set for release on Friday morning.
Trump is looking to the emergency powers to provide a legal basis for his proposed hefty and wide-ranging tariffs, CNN reported. The news jolted markets already on guard for Trump surprises as Inauguration Day nears, bracing for a wave of policy moves and executive orders.
DJI - Delayed Quote USDDow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)
42,635.20+106.84+(0.25%)At close: 4:43:30 PM EST^DJI ^IXIC ^GSPC(left-click to pin tooltip)(right-click to deleteright-click to manage)(long-press to drag)(drag to change anchor time)^DJIInvestors are keeping a close eye on prospects for the economy as they gauge shifts in the chances of slower interest-rate cuts this year.
Stocks sold off and the benchmark Treasury yield spiked on Tuesday as service sector and labor market readings revived concerns over stubborn inflation. The data gives weight to Fed officials' hints that they will lower rates slower than foreseen, and traders now see a less than 50% chance of any easing before May, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Markets could switch back to viewing strong economic data releases as negative and a spur to "higher for longer" rates, some analysts believe.
US private companies slowed their headcount growth in December, signaling moderating demand for hiring. But the number of Americans making jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week, pointing to a stable labor market, official figures showed.
The data was released a day early as government offices — as well as the stock market — are closed for a national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter on Thursday.
LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER 16 updates
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Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller said Wednesday that he still supports cutting interest rates this year, believing inflation will continue to drift lower despite promises of sweeping tariffs from the new Trump administration.
"I believe that inflation will continue to make progress toward our 2% goal over the medium term and that further reductions will be appropriate," Waller said during a speech in Paris.
While Waller underscored that tariff proposals raise the possibility of a "new source of upward pressure on inflation," he noted projections of their economic impact vary widely.
"If, as I expect, tariffs do not have a significant or persistent effect on inflation, they are unlikely to affect my view of appropriate monetary policy," Waller said.
A clash between Donald Trump and the Fed could develop in 2025 if the Fed pulls back on any expected interest rate cuts due to elevated inflation. Some economists expect Trump's policies to make any cuts less likely.
Trump heaped more pressure on the Fed Tuesday during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.
"Inflation is still raging, and interest rates are far too high," Trump said, arguing that "we are inheriting a difficult situation from the outgoing administration."
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaking last November in New York City. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid · REUTERS / Reuters Trump has previously threatened tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China, and Mexico has pledged to retaliate.
Rapidly changing signals on that topic caused a lot of market whiplash Monday following a Washington Post story outlining discussions among top Trump aides centered around a more limited set of tariffs that would be universal but only apply to what are deemed critical imports.
Just a few hours later, Trump himself weighed in to flatly deny the story, writing on social media that the story "incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong."
Waller on Wednesday emphasized that he needs to see what policies are enacted before seriously considering the effects — a point reinforced in recent months by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Waller wouldn’t specify how many rate cuts the Fed could make this year but said he believes "more cuts will be appropriate."
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking in December. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque · REUTERS / Reuters Last month, Fed policymakers predicted a total of two rate cuts in 2025, down from a previous estimate of four due in part to expectations of elevated inflation.
"The pace of those cuts will depend on how much progress we make on inflation while keeping the labor market from weakening," Waller said.
Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
- Stock market today: Nasdaq leads stock declines as traders pare rate cut bets, Nvidia plummets after record close
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US stocks reversed early gains to close firmly lower as cautious investors weighed new economic data, while Nvidia (NVDA) retreated from its record close despite the company's big artificial intelligence plans.
The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell over 1.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lost roughly 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) bounced around throughout the day but ended the session down about 0.4%.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) added roughly 7 basis points to hover just below 4.7%. And bets on when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates were pushed back, too.
DJI - Delayed Quote USDDow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)
42,635.20+106.84+(0.25%)At close: 4:43:30 PM EST^DJI ^IXIC ^GSPC(left-click to pin tooltip)(right-click to deleteright-click to manage)(long-press to drag)(drag to change anchor time)^DJIEarly on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing PMI indicated the service sector continued to expand last month, although the prices paid index jumped to a nearly two-year high of 64.4, up from the prior 58.2.
The surge in prices "is a worry for the Fed," Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan wrote.
"This serves as a good reminder that the Fed's fight against inflation is not over, particularly going into a year where tariffs and immigration curbs are set to reignite price pressures."
Additionally, JOLTS job openings rose more than expected during the month of November. Fewer hires were also made compared to the previous month while the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, fell to 1.9% from 2.1% in October.
The data sets the stage for Friday's all-important December jobs report. Investors are now betting with almost certainty that the central bank keeps interest rates unchanged later this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders are also placing a less than 50% chance the central bank cuts rates ahead of its June meeting.
Meanwhile, Nvidia shares reversed gains to fall over 6% after hitting a record close just one day prior. The chip maker was the Dow's worst performer of the session. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's CES keynote on Monday revealed a new AI superchip among other planned products.
LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER 15 updates
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The surprise departure of Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision Michael Barr is focusing new attention on Michelle Bowman, named by analysts as the person most likely to become the Fed’s new top banking cop.
The conservative Fed governor and former state banking commissioner of Kansas "seems like the likely choice," Stifel chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner said in a note Monday.
Bowman "is the logical candidate," added TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg in a separate note.
What helps Bowman's chances, according to analysts, is that there currently is no empty seat on the Fed's board of governors for Trump to fill with an outsider. Barr said he will remain as a Fed governor until his term is up in 2032.
So Trump either has to leave the Fed vice chair for supervision position empty until Fed governor Adriana Kugler's term expires Jan. 31, 2026, or nominate an existing Fed governor to the post. Bowman would fit that qualification.
Bowman, if selected, could take the regulation of the nation’s largest banks in a new direction.
Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman, in 2019. Photo: REUTERS/Ann Saphir · REUTERS / Reuters She opposed some of the proposals put forward by Barr, including a new set of controversial capital rules proposed by top bank regulators that would require lenders to set aside greater buffers for future losses.
The requirements are based on an international set of capital requirements known as Basel III imposed in the decade following the 2008 financial crisis.
Banks have been fighting this US proposal for the last year in an aggressive public campaign and even dropped hints about suing regulators if they don’t get their way.
Bowman has argued that the plan needed "substantive changes" and that an increase in capital requirements at the scale proposed by regulators could significantly harm the economy.
Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, said Monday that he would leave his post by Feb. 28. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo · Reuters / Reuters She wanted the Fed to tailor capital requirements to a bank’s size and risk profile as the regulator does now, arguing that she hasn’t seen compelling evidence that changing this approach would bolster the banking system.
Bowman “would lead any B3 re-write in a different direction," said Stifel's Gardner. "If there was any doubt," the Basel proposal initially pushed by Barr "is dead."
But Seiberg of TD Cowen said "this is less of a victory for the big banks than it may appear."
He noted that "Democrats will retain their majority on the Federal Reserve Board until early 2026. And it is hard for us to see much getting done on the deregulatory side this year given the need to confirm new regulators."
A critical dissent
Bowman was appointed to the Fed’s board of governors by Trump during his first term in office in November 2018 to fill an unexpired term ending January 2020. She was reappointed in January 2020 and is serving a term that ends in January 2034.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said Tuesday it's leaving the Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), completing a mass exodus of Wall Street banks from a key climate group.
The biggest lender in the US said it would "continue to work independently to advance the interests of our firm, our shareholders and our clients and remain focused on pragmatic solutions to help further low-carbon technologies while advancing energy security."
JPMorgan's decision comes after similar exits in recent days and weeks by Morgan Stanley (MS), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Goldman Sachs (GS).
The NZBA was formed in 2021 as part of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, and a number of banks touted their initial membership in the alliance as financial-sector commitments to net-zero goals became a focus for Wall Street.
The JPMorgan corporate headquarters in New York City. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo · Reuters / Reuters Now such affiliations are coming under political attack as the GOP prepares to take over all of Washington in 2025 and ramps up a focus on "woke" investing.
In December, the House Judiciary Committee, led by Ohio Republican Jim Jordan, criticized financial environmental alliances, saying they have created what it called "a climate cartel."
Another climate coalition formed with an aim to limit greenhouse gases globally, Climate Action 100+, has lost JPMorgan Chase (JPM), State Street (STT), and Pimco as members. BlackRock (BLK) transferred its membership from BlackRock Inc. to BlackRock International.
Last year Jordan called the Climate Action 100+ withdrawals "big wins for freedom and the American economy, and we hope more financial institutions follow suit in abandoning collusive ESG actions."
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) speaks at a House Republicans press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 12, 2024. REUTERS/Craig Hudson/File Photo · Reuters / Reuters Banks aren’t abandoning all climate groups.
Citigroup, for example, remains part of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, the wider climate initiative that houses NZBA and also includes coalitions of large asset managers and insurers. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, along with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, were founding principals.
Last week, that alliance shared a statement announcing changes to the organization that loosened the barriers to participation.
JPMorgan said Tuesday that its asset management division will remain part of the affiliated Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative (NZAMI) even as the company leaves the climate group for banks.
"We will also continue to support the banking and investment needs of our clients who are engaged in energy transition and in decarbonizing different sectors of the economy,” the spokesperson added.
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The diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) rollback across corporate America now includes the country's best-known fast food chain, McDonald's (MCD).
The burger giant said in a Monday announcement that it would retire its practice of setting aspirational representation goals, known as quotas, and do away with a company pledge to hire a diverse group of suppliers in favor of "a more integrated discussion with suppliers about inclusion as it relates to business performance."
McDonald's added that it would also pause external surveys and change the way it refers to its diversity team to the "Global Inclusion Team."
NYSE - Delayed Quote USDMcDonald's Corporation (MCD)
286.90-2.44(-0.84%)At close: 4:00:02 PM EST286.74-0.16(-0.06%)After hours: 8:00:00 PM EST(left-click to pin tooltip)(right-click to deleteright-click to manage)(long-press to drag)(drag to change anchor time)MCDThe changes were communicated by email on Monday to McDonald’s restaurant owners, operators, employees, and suppliers amid a backlash against diversity-focused initiatives and "woke" policies that picked up momentum across corporate America in 2024.
The list of companies that have backed away or adjusted such policies now includes many of the biggest names in business. Walmart (WMT), for example, backed away from its DEI initiatives in November following public and shareholder pressure to do so.
Home improvement giant Lowe’s (LOW), rural retailer Tractor Supply (TSCO), and tractor maker John Deere (DE) also announced retreats from DEI policies last summer.
Harley-Davidson (HOG), Jack Daniel’s maker Brown-Forman (BF-A), Polaris (PII), and its motorcycle subsidiary, Indian Motorcycle, are among the other recent pullbacks.
Conservative activist Robby Starbuck has said many of the discarded diversity initiatives happened after he communicated plans to "expose" woke policies.
The original McDonald's franchise opened by Ray Kroc in 1955, in Des Plaines, Ill. · patty_c via Getty Images Starbuck contacted McDonalds to inquire about its policies, though he did not engage in conversations with the company, according to CNBC.
There have been other rollbacks enforced by the courts.
Last month a federal appeals court struck down Nasdaq rules designed to encourage more diverse company boards.
The decision handed down by nine judges for the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans concluded that the Securities and Exchange Commission should not have approved the Nasdaq rules in 2021.
McDonald's on Monday cited a 2023 US Supreme Court ruling, Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, as a catalyst for reassessing its DEI approach.
Following the ruling, the company said, it considered that the legal landscape had shifted and benchmarked its approach to other companies that were also reevaluating diversity programs.
The court in Students for Fair Admissions specifically ruled against race-conscious student admissions programs at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina, saying the programs violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.